​For Yakima county located in central Washington, the effects of climate change include both higher temperatures and an increased risk of drought. Yakima is in a Mediterranean climate similar to the climate of Greece and California. This climate is characterized by mild winters and hot summers; most precipitation – an average of 8.3 inches in Yakima – falls in the winter instead of the summer. Already hot, Yakima is expected to get hotter. Analysis by NOAA suggests that even in a “low emission” scenario, the weighted-average daily maximum temperature will be 61.4 degrees Fahrenheit in 2080. With “high emissions,” this temperature will increase to 64.5 degrees Fahrenheit. There is a large difference between these temperatures and the 2000’s maximum daily temperature of 55.3 degrees Fahrenheit.
 
Drought is more likely to occur because of climate change. A tributary of the Columbia River, the Yakima river starts in the Cascade mountains. Water from the Yakima river comes from five reservoirs run by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation: Lake Keechelus, Lake Kachess, Lake Cle Elum, Rimrock Lake, and Bumping Lake. The total volume of these reservoirs is around one million acre-feet of water. Because of winter snowpack, these reservoirs can easily fill-up in the spring. Snowpack is essential for these reservoirs to remain full. Less snowpack, however, would result in lower water levels in the reservoirs which are more likely to remain empty as the dry summer months continue each year.

​Data for rainfall was projected using a “variable infiltration capacity macroscale hydrology” model. One of the advantages of this simulation type is that scientists can use it to predict changes based not only on watersheds in Washington but based on other watersheds, that are out of the state, that could impact Washington’s water. This data was generated between 1916 and 2006, however it has been modified on each month to better reflect the changing climate that will occur 2020s, 2040s, 2080s via the delta method. Using the data from these simulations, scientists can evaluate both snowpack and streamflow. The “Snow Water Equivalent” graph below compares the predicted amount of water in a snowpack on April first in comparison to historical data.
 
Additionally, projected and historical temperature data is supplemented from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climate explorer tool (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2020). This free, reliable, online tool gathers precipitation from on the ground metrological stations located both around the country and around the state. This tool predicts both scenarios with high greenhouse emissions, and low greenhouse emissions.

​Because Yakima gets so much sun, it is a center for agriculture with the highest market value from farming in the state. In addition to growing the most squash in the state, the county grows the most apples, cherries and pears. Furthermore, Yakima county produces more hops than any where else in the United States. In 2017, there were 2,952 farms in Yakima, with a combined total area of 1,781,463 acres. Ninety-six percent of these farms are family owned.
 
The Yakima river basin is one of the most irrigated areas in the United States. Fifteen percent of farm area, or 260,023 acres, are irrigated through canals, many of which were built in the late nineteenth century. Yet, since 1977, the Yakima basin has experienced seven droughts, and numerous low water years. Climate change will only exacerbate these issues, droughts will become more frequent and more severe. As most of the precipitation shifts from snowpack to rain, there will be less water stored in reservoirs. Therefore, the Yakima river will have less streamflow. For farmers who get their water from the Yakima river, a drastically reduced flow will hamper growing efforts.
 
In addition, the Yakima river provides crucial spawning and rearing habitat for several salmon species. Fish, of course, need water to survive. One study found that the spawning ground for Coho Salmon and Fall Chinook will decrease because of climate change. The Yakima Tribe of Indians has tribal water rights to protect fish in the Yakima river under an 1855 treaty, however these rights were vague. The famous Ecology v Acquavella et. al. case settled in 2019 established primary water rights for the Yakima nation and addressed instream flows necessary to maintain fish and other aquatic life.

Ecology v Acquavella - Washington State Department of Ecology.

Yakima River Basin. USGS. 

Identifying Stakeholder-Relevant Climate Change Impacts: A Case Study in the Yakima River Basin. Climatic Change. 

Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA. Climatic Change. 

​Ever since the early 2000s, Chelan County in Washington has experienced an increase in average maximum temperature. This trend in increased heat is predicted to reach well into the future. At the same time, the average precipitation shows signs of decreasing, with the average precipitation from 2000-2020 being .26” less than in the twenty years previous. In addition, snow cover over the last five decades, been disappearing earlier and earlier in the year across areas of Russia, Alaska, Canada, and in parts of the northwestern United States.
 
These factors have all contributed to an increase in wildfires across Washington, with a significant increase in large wildfires in the state starting in 2012. In 2012 alone, there were 12 large wildfires in Washington, four of them affecting Chelan County. At that point in time, Chelan county boasted the eighth highest occurrences of wildfires based on data spanning from 2003 to 2012. Then, in 2015, the fires grew to such a size that Washington state had to declare a state of emergency. That year, Chelan county was rocked by fire that burned 88,985 acres surrounding the city of Chelan. This fire was attributed to drought conditions cause by minimal snowpack and unusually high temperatures.
 
Increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and shorter snow cover seasons are elements of climate change that have huge negative impacts on the health of forests, leading to larger and more devastating wildfires. Though wildfires are a natural element of new growth in forested areas, the increase in devastation and frequency of large-scale fires is a danger to both humans and the natural environment. The ecosystem of Washington state forests could be severely impacted by the increase in large-scale wildfires.

​Much of the data used in this project comes from the following interactive tools: The Climate Explorer, the Global Climate Dashboard, and Climate at a Glance. Graphs from the Climate Explorer that show the increase in Chelan County’s average maximum temperature were created by combining observed historical data and current measurements to predict and model possible future trends in temperature. Climate at a Glance and The Climate Explorer are both run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. County specific data is collected from NOAA’s US Climate Divisional Database, which contains climate data spanning from 1895 to 2020.
 
Snow cover data has been collected from satellite images that have been mapping the snow extent of the Northern Hemisphere since the 1960s. This data, now collected daily as opposed to weekly as was the case in the sixties, is corroborated by various other measuring tools including observations, precipitation gauges, and weather stations with pressure-sensitive measuring tools.
 
The fire data used in this report has been compiled from various sources including a Washington State Wildland Fire Profile from 2013, a report on the Chelan Complex fire of 2015, and various articles.

​The increase in wildfires in Chelan county poses a threat for residents and their surroundings. The Chelan Complex fire alone destroyed 58 buildings, causing $23,513,366.00 worth of damage. Economically, dealing with fires is very expensive. Between 2010 and 2016, Washington spent nearly a half a billion dollars fighting fires and maintaining fire departments. This imposes significant economic strain on all residents of Washington.
 
Not only can people be affected by the economic repercussions of increasing wildfires, the rising threat means increased health risks as well. Though only a few wildfire deaths have been recorded in Chelan county, wildfire smoke increases the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular health issues. Smoke inhalation can also aggravate preexisting health conditions such as asthma and angina. People over the age of 65, children and infants, pregnant mothers, and people with lung, respiratory, and heart problems are all particularly susceptible to adverse effects.      
 
Though steps such as burn bans are being implemented in attempts to decrease the rate of wildfires in Chelan county, the decreasing precipitation and snow cover combined with the increasing heat means that forests are more at risk than ever, and forests at risk means that people are at risk.

​A 2016 Climate Central study revealed that human actions are resulting in rising global sea levels. As a result, some primary concerns are how populations, buildings, infrastructure, land and contamination risks will be affected by these rising sea levels. For Thurston County, there is an increased risk of flooding, especially in the most vulnerable areas that closely line large bodies of water.
 
Thurston County, home to the city of Olympia, rests on the bank of the Puget Sound inlet. A U.S. National Research Council report projected a 9% risk of at least one flood over 4ft occurring sometime between today and 2050 in the Olympia area. By the year 2060, this percentage is projected to rise to 24% before drastically increasing to 62% by the year 2070 with flood levels expected to rise well above 4ft.
 
The frequency and intensity of heavy rain events is also projected to increase according to a 2015 study conducted as part of the Climate Impacts Group’s “State of Knowledge” series that focused on the Puget Sound area. Increased precipitation is directly linked to increasing global air temperatures that will lead to more freshwater inflows into the Puget Sound, particularly during winter months. Additionally, rising air temperatures would increase the likelihood of harmful algal blooms in the ecosystem.
 
While Washington state as a whole is at risk to the effects of climate change, areas such as Thurston county that are near central bodies of water are particularly vulnerable. Rising temperatures and sea levels will directly impact the Puget Sound and its surrounding areas. The effects of climate change will surely have a range of sociological, ecological and economic impacts on Thurston county.

​These projections rely primarily on two tools that are freely accessible online: the “State of Knowledge Report - Climate Change in Puget Sound” and the Surging Seas, Risk Finder Website.
 
The “State of Knowledge” series summarizes research on the probable effects of climate change on the water, lands and people of the Puget Sound. The synthesized work was created by the Climate Impacts Group, which aims to increase understanding and awareness of climate change through sharing information and conducting scientific studies. Data, projections and relevant research were all used to compile this report.
 
The Surging Seas tool aims to provide accessible, science-based, localized information to help people better understand and respond to the climate crisis as it specifically relates to rising sea levels. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) provides Surging Seas with accurate coastal elevation and tide station data. More scientific data was pulled from 2012 U.S. National Research Council records while population-specific data was obtained through the 2010 U.S. Census.

​Flooding and rising sea levels disproportionately harm vulnerable populations like the elderly, children, and people experiencing homelessness. The Thurston county homeless census found that 800 individuals were homeless or lived in emergency or transitional housing in 2019. While this is a slight decrease since the year prior, it is still a significantly large number. Many of these homeless individuals are unsheltered and positioned to be hit the hardest in the case of flooding or any other major climate events.
 
In addition to vulnerable communities being at risk from elevating sea levels, the effects of climate change will impact other areas as well. Agriculture lies along many rivers, infrastructure is vulnerable, homeowners and their property are at risk, and clean water sources may be contaminated. Climate change has the capacity to influence change in many areas and, eventually, everyone will be considered vulnerable regardless of their socioeconomic status.
 
When surveyed in 2016, residents of Thurston county had a higher than average awareness of climate issues, yet a lower than average concern for the personal toll that global warming will have on them.

Article author: Kiersten Kimminau, William O. Douglas Honors College, Central Washington University
Article editor: Dr. Tamara Caulkins, William O. Douglas Honors College, Central Washington University
​

Rising sea levels, an increase in overall precipitation, and more severe storms have greatly increased Fairfield County’s risk for floods. Over 130,000 people in the state are currently at risk of inland flooding, while heavy downpours and rising sea levels have strained the County’s sewer system. This stress on the County’s unprepared infrastructure has severely impacted both human and aquatic health. 

In particular, the rise in rain storms has increased levels of runoff. Within Fairfield County, the city of Bridgeport operates under a combined sewer system, meaning that rainwater runoff, domestic sewage, and industrial wastewater are all transported within the same pipe. During heavy storms where the rainfall exceeds the system’s capacity, the system is designed to overflow and release excess water into nearby bodies of water.

These overflows, called combined sewer overflows (CSOs), have considerable impacts on the local environment of Fairfield County. CSOs present an environmental and public health risk for the County, as the untreated wastewater that is discharged can contain bacteria, raw sewage, excess nutrients from fertilizers, and chemicals. This particularly impacted Bridgeport, as portions of the city’s sewer system were built over 100 years ago.

​The Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection found that a CSO occurs whenever there is 0.4 inches of precipitation or more. Overflows from the system occur on average every 10 days, releasing between 100,000 and 500,000 gallons of contaminated water into local rivers, streams, and harbors. With the increasing rate at which heavy downpours are taking place in Bridgeport, this leaves the public exposed to bacteria and raw sewage, creating a considerable health risk. 

The increasingly high levels of contamination have also undermined recreational activity, often leading to the closure of multiple beaches and parks. In Bridgeport the following parks, beaches, and harbors are constantly affected: Ash Creek, Bridgeport Harbor, Black Rock Harbor, Pequonnock Harbor, Johnson’s Creek, Yellow Mill Pond, Cedar Creek, Burr Creek, and Island Brook.  

Moreover, the loss of fishing grounds in Bridgeport has greatly disturbed the fishing industry. Leaked sewage has and will continue to kill tens of thousands of acres of shellfish beds. Additionally, hypoxia, or the overgrowth of algae that leads to dangerously low levels of oxygen for aquatic life, will continue to appear throughout the County as excess fertilizers enter these ecosystems. These “dead zones” are detrimental for aquatic species and will only further degrade the County’s water quality.

​Fairfield County, and specifically the Bridgeport Water Pollution Control Authority (WPCA), have already taken measures to combat the damages from CSOs. The WPCA has developed a plan to minimize the number of CSOs, and has implemented green infrastructure to prevent or delay stormwater from entering the sewer system. Although these efforts have helped reduce the number of overflows, Fairfield County nevertheless must invest in more infrastructure and a new system in order to mitigate the damages caused by stormwater runoff and severe floods.

Some CT beaches considered among the dirtiest. EyeWitness News
Water quality at Bridgeport, Fairfield beaches dropped in 2016. CT Post
Bridgeport plans massive sewer upgrades. CT Post
Combined Sewer Overflow Guide for City Employees. Bridgeport WPCA

Los Angeles County receives the majority of its annual rainfall during the late fall through early spring, then experiences a dry season during the summer months. The amount of winter season precipitation Los Angeles experiences has decreased over the past century, and this decline is predicted to continue. This reduction in rainfall means that there is less moisture in the soil at the beginning of the summer, which is the County’s dry season. The water evaporates from the soil and plants during the summer, and less winter precipitation ultimately leaves the vegetation drier earlier in the year. ​

In addition to lower levels of rainfall, rising temperatures are reinforcing dryer and hotter summers in Los Angeles County. Higher annual temperatures lead to earlier snowpack melting, meaning that the winter season is shorter, there is less moisture in the soil during the dry season, and that the dry season is even longer. Warming temperatures also speed up evaporation, thus drying out the soil and parching the trees and vegetation.

Drier and hotter summers have increased Los Angeles County’s drought risk, and by 2050 California’s risk of summertime drought is expected to almost triple. California’s dry and hot summers have always made the state more vulnerable to wildfires; however, rising temperatures and lower levels of precipitation have made the fire seasons longer and more severe. Los Angeles County’s fire season has already lengthened by approximately 75 days, and will likely increase in the future as well.

With a longer and wetter winter season, Los Angeles County’s vegetation would soak up moisture which could help prevent summertime wildfires. This moisture dried out slowly through the summer season until it could be replenished the following fall. However, because the summer season has grown longer and hotter, and fall and winter rainfalls have decreased, flammable tinder has accumulated to high levels. Moreover, fire suppression over the last several decades has only added to the dangerous levels of tinder that has been available, and will continue to be available, to burn. ​

These reconstructions are based on two easy to use tools that are freely accessible online: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate at a Glance tool and National Drought Mitigation Center's United States Drought Monitor. 
​
NOAA's Climate at a Glance tool uses data collected at weather stations and stored in NOAA's U.S. Climate Divisions database. This data is used to generate graphs about temperature, precipitation, and droughts, with the ability to look at global, national, and local averages.

The Drought Monitor produces maps of drought conditions across the United States and publishes them weekly. The tool combines climate, soil, and water data with reports from 350 experts across the country. This generates an assessment of current drought conditions nationally, with the ability to look at data for individual states or counties.

Nantucket Island will continue to face extreme regional impacts as sea levels continue to rise. Given its location as an island off the coast of Massachusetts, Nantucket is especially susceptible to the effects of rising sea levels. If global temperatures increase by 2°C, Nantucket could see up to 10 feet of sea level rise. If temperatures increase by 4°C, oceans surrounding the County could rise by as much as 19 feet. In both emissions scenarios, all of historic Nantucket - a community hundreds of years old - would be underwater; however, with a rise in sea levels of 19 feet, a significant portion of the island could become submerged. ​

Nantucket's Bluffs and Beaches are Crumbling in the Face of Storms and Rising Seas. PRI
​Chronicle: Fighting Erosion on Nantucket. WCVB
More Details on Geotubes. Siasconset Beach Preservation Fund

These projections and reconstructions are based on freely accessible online tools from The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Tides and Currents tool and the Climate Central Surging Seas: Risk Finder projections and tools. 

The NOAA Tides and Currents resource reports local mean sea level changes from 1850 to today. It uses data collected from U.S. and global water level stations to reconstruct local sea level trends.
​
The Climate Central Surging Seas tool generates sea level projections based on the different emissions scenarios presented in the NOAA Technical Reports. This tool uses data from the San Francisco water level station to generate the coastal flood days graph.

As the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere continues to increase due to human emissions, average annual temperatures in Marion County, Indiana are expected to rise from an annual average of about 63.5°F in 2007 to an average of 69°F by 2100 under “low emission” predictions, or an average of 73.5°F under “high emission” predictions.

Low emission conditions are estimated by assuming that we will at least moderately decrease our emissions in the near future, while high emission conditions assume that we will do nothing to change our current behavior. Without immediate action to reduce emissions, we can expect to have almost twenty times as many extreme heat days in Marion County. Extreme heat days are days when the highest temperatures rise above 95°F. Likewise, Marion County is expected to experience three to four times as many high heat nights, defined by temperatures 68°F or above, in the coming century under low and high emission scenarios respectively. 

Another consequence of climate change that Marion County will face in the coming years is a likely increase in rainfall. Average annual precipitation has been increasing since 1895 in Indiana, and is expected to continue to increase in the future, possibly by 6-8% within the next half century. Most of this rain is expected in the winter and spring, leaving the summer and fall months possibly drier than they are now. With increased precipitation, we also expect to see heavy downpours more often followed by more frequent flooding. 

​The projections of future climate change presented in this article come mainly from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment compiled by Purdue University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Explorer tool. Both of these tools rely on temperature and precipitation data gathered at weather stations on the ground around the county and state. These historical values are then compared to predictions for the future compiled by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC creates future predictions with advanced computer models that evaluate the climate under different emissions scenarios. 

Rising temperature and changes in rain patterns will likely have serious consequences for the health of people in Marion County. Scientists expect higher rates of dehydration, heat stroke, and death. Extreme heat can worsen pre-existing conditions, such as heart disease and diabetes, especially among children and the elderly. The number of deaths that can be linked to temperature extremes is expected to rise from 33 in 1990 to between 43 and 71 per year by 2050.

As temperatures rise in Marion County, air quality may also decline. Ozone particles stay near the ground in hot weather, triggering asthma attacks and exacerbating high blood pressure. Since cold winters currently control populations of mosquitoes and ticks, warming trends could well promote a sharp increase in the number of both pests, which could in turn allow the disease they carry to infect more people. It is likely that the emissions cuts that would reduce global warming would save more lives in Indiana than in most other states. 

The growing season in Marion County has already lengthened significantly. By the 2050s, it is expected to lengthen by at least thirty days under high emission scenarios. The longer growing season will likely increase crop productivity in Marion County, though not as much as one might expect. The increasing number of high heat days will likely damage some crops, and the increase in precipitation during winter and spring, together with the rise in extreme precipitation events, should increasingly wash fertilizer and nutrients from the soil into nearby watersheds. Nevertheless, Indiana is likely to remain the top producer of corn and soybeans. 

Marion County will therefore growing increasingly uncomfortable and unhealthy for many of its residents, yet a key sector of its economy - agricultural production - may in fact benefit from at least modest warming. These benefits will likely decline sharply in high emissions scenarios, and it is therefore in the interest of Marion County residents to contribute to a lower-carbon future. 

2014 EPA Clean Power Plan. EPA. 
Impacts of Climate Change for the State of Indiana. EPA.
Indiana’s Past and Future Climate. Purdue University. 

Alaska is warming more than twice as quickly as the contiguous United States. Over the past 60 years, average annual temperatures in Alaska have increased by about 3°F. Winter warming has been even more extreme, with average seasonal temperatures rising by 6°F. Climate projections based on continuing high greenhouse gas emissions - known as "high emissions scenarios" - predict that average winter temperatures in towns across North Slope Borough in northern Alaska will rise by as much as 25°F in the coming century. By 2050, average annual temperatures across Alaska are expected to increase by 2 to 4°F.

As Alaska continues to warm, melting sea ice and coastal erosion represent the two most pressing threats to North Slope Borough. Permafrost is a thick layer of soil, usually a foot or so down from the surface, that remains frozen year-round. Permafrost covers over 80% of Alaska, but that number is shrinking as rising temperatures cause permafrost to melt.

When permafrost melts, the ground above it collapses, and methane enters the atmosphere. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, and although it does not stay in the atmosphere for long when compared to carbon dioxide, it can cause profound regional warming. Thus because melting permafrost also increases atmospheric methane, rising temperatures will provoke even more warming and melting. 

Increasing temperatures will also melt sea ice on the coasts of Alaska. Models that match historical trends predict that, by 2030, the entire Arctic could be ice-free in the summer. Loss of sea ice is dangerous for ecosystems in North Slope Borough. In the colder past, sea ice acted as a natural barrier to storms and waves. However, as the sea ice melts and recedes from the coastline, wind and water erosion is projected to increase accordingly, especially during big storms. Permafrost also once protected the North Slope Borough coasts from erosion, but it may not for much longer. 

​These predictions are largely based on two easy-to-use tools that are freely accessible online: the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) GISS Surface Temperature Analysis and the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis (NSIDC).
 
The GISS Surface Temperature Analysis tool uses maps to show global temperature anomalies, comparing current temperatures to temperatures in the 1951-1980 period. Mean temperatures are averaged over a specific time period and interval, and the analysis is updated monthly. Data is compiled from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s databases and satellites.
 
The Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis tool provides updates and scientific analysis on the conditions of Arctic sea ice. The website publishes graphs and animated visuals documenting the extent, depth, and concentration of sea ice. The tool is run by National Snow and Ice Data Center scientists, along with support from NASA.

Future climate change will likely have devastating consequences for North Slope Borough and its residents. The imminent reality of a seasonally ice-free Arctic may sound like a desirable outcome at first, seeing that some economic opportunities such as faster shipping routes, oil and gas exploration, and tourism may become available. However, coastal villages, which represent many of the residences in North Slope Borough, will face one of two unfortunate realities as erosion threatens homes. At best, residents will be forced to relocate inland,  and at worst, homes and even lives will be lost to the sea. More than 30 villages in North Slope Borough have already been identified for relocation.

Indigenous lives are especially threatened as climate change continues in the coming century. Alaskan Iñupiat make up fifty-two percent of all residents in North Slope Borough, according to a 2016 census. Many rely on a subsistence diet and are therefore relatively vulnerable to sudden changes in their surrounding ecosystems. Whales and seals, which are hunted out on the sea ice, constitute the majority of the protein in local Iñupiat diets. With the sea ice retreating, the accessible supplies of fish, game, and whales will decline, and Iñupiat hunters will have to brave dangerously thin ice in hopes of catching food.

Thawing permafrost may also undermine human health and economic growth in North Slope Borough. These problems will include a loss of clean water, saltwater intrusion, and the expansion of diseases northward into the warming climate. Many villages, especially those of lower income, dig holes into the permafrost and use these to dispose of and contain sewage; however, as the permafrost thaws, the sewage will leak out, resulting in contamination and the spread of disease. Thawing permafrost will also contribute to increasing pollutant exposure to residents, as the soil contains a significant amount of mercury and carbon dioxide. Additionally, thawing permafrost is projected to add up to $6.1 billion in maintenance costs, as the uneven sinking of the ground will disrupt existing infrastructure.

Unfortunately, many of these events will occur even if warming is slowed by curbing emissions. Combating these changes will require both adaptation and resilience in North Slope Borough and beyond.

Alaska Regional Climate Projections. Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning.
Alaska. U.S. Global Change Research Program​

A 2013 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change layed out the specific ways in which global warming has changed, and will continue to shape, the planet’s many environmental systems. For Multnomah County, this means increasing average temperatures throughout the year, greater incidence of extreme heat days, and increased risk of flooding.

Multnomah County, home to the city of Portland, rests on the bank of the Willamette River. Even with conservative estimates of climate change and a global increase of only 1 degree Celsius, Portland would experience significant flooding of up to seven feet. With a global temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius, the Limit set by The Paris Agreement on Climate, Portland would see fifteen feet of flooding.
 
Multnomah’s average temperatures are also predicted to increase, and have been increasing notably since the mid 1950s according to the chart from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Alliance, and is predicted to rise at increasing rates for the next century. Even in the “low emissions” scenario, average temperature in Multnomah County is predicted to increase by about 4 degrees Farenheit in the next century, or up to 9 degrees Farenheit in the high emissions scenario.
 
While Oregon as a whole has a highly variable climate, Multnomah county is a fairly consistent climate zone, ranging from a 40° F average in January to a 68° average in July. However, extreme heat days are predicted to quadruple in frequency from about ten a year in 2000 to 40 a year by 2050. This will have major sociological and economic implications for the county.

​These projections primarily rely on two tools that are freely accessible online: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Explorer app, and the Climate Central Surging Seas, Mapping Choices app.

The Climate Explorer tool uses weather information recorded by meteorological instruments at weather stations to reconstruct past climate changes. It uses supercomputer simulations of future climate changes under both high and low emissions scenarios. 

The Surging Seas tool combines historic flood statistics and local sea level trends with global scenarios of sea level increases, which were compiled in the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment. ​

​Data from simulations like these is then combined with studies of local economy, current local policy, and state infrastructure to create resources like America’s Preparedness Report Card from Climate Central and ICF International. This resource synthesizes climate and sociological data and grades each state on its level of preparedness for each of five future climatological hazards related to climate change.

In America’s Preparedness Report Card, Oregon as a whole received an “F” in Extreme Heat preparedness. Though extreme heat is not currently a major risk to the state, the projected increase of extreme heat days and Oregon’s lack of policy or public health plans designed to deal with that increase leaves Oregon, and Multnomah County, in a risky position. Extreme heat disproportionately harms vulnerable populations like the elderly, young children, and people experiencing homelessness. Without proper planning, Multnomah is unprepared for the public health costs and risks to its citizens that an increase in extreme heat days will bring.

The increased frequency of wildfires and decreased air quality overall in the city of Portland already affects Multnomah county residents, and is predicted to worsen in coming decades, leaving asthma sufferers and others with compromised respiratory systems at particular risk for life threatening health complications.
 
On a more general level, the Willamette Valley, including Multnomah County, is the most diverse agricultural area of the state, and is, therefore, reliant on predictable and consistent climatological and weather patterns to maintain this industry sector. Agriculture and recreation are major sectors of the Oregon economy, and even more so for Multnomah County at the intersection of agriculture and tourism from Portland. Therefore, damage from climate change—droughts and subsequent crop failures, urban space loss, and resident migrations—would be a major financial burden to the area.
 
When surveyed, residents of Multnomah county have a higher than average awareness of climate issues, as well as higher than average concern over the impact of climatological effects. However, despite local governmental and community adaptations made to address the changing climate, a few key oversights leave Multnomah County vulnerable to the public health and infrastructural risks of climate change.

Oregon. States at Risk.
Symptoms of Climate Change. Oregon Public Broadcasting