FUTURE: rising temperatures, increased precipitation, and hardier crops in Marion County, Indiana4/30/2018 Climate changes and the local environment:As the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere continues to increase due to human emissions, average annual temperatures in Marion County, Indiana are expected to rise from an annual average of about 63.5°F in 2007 to an average of 69°F by 2100 under “low emission” predictions, or an average of 73.5°F under “high emission” predictions. Low emission conditions are estimated by assuming that we will at least moderately decrease our emissions in the near future, while high emission conditions assume that we will do nothing to change our current behavior. Without immediate action to reduce emissions, we can expect to have almost twenty times as many extreme heat days in Marion County. Extreme heat days are days when the highest temperatures rise above 95°F. Likewise, Marion County is expected to experience three to four times as many high heat nights, defined by temperatures 68°F or above, in the coming century under low and high emission scenarios respectively. Another consequence of climate change that Marion County will face in the coming years is a likely increase in rainfall. Average annual precipitation has been increasing since 1895 in Indiana, and is expected to continue to increase in the future, possibly by 6-8% within the next half century. Most of this rain is expected in the winter and spring, leaving the summer and fall months possibly drier than they are now. With increased precipitation, we also expect to see heavy downpours more often followed by more frequent flooding. How we know:The projections of future climate change presented in this article come mainly from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment compiled by Purdue University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Explorer tool. Both of these tools rely on temperature and precipitation data gathered at weather stations on the ground around the county and state. These historical values are then compared to predictions for the future compiled by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC creates future predictions with advanced computer models that evaluate the climate under different emissions scenarios. Human consequences:Rising temperature and changes in rain patterns will likely have serious consequences for the health of people in Marion County. Scientists expect higher rates of dehydration, heat stroke, and death. Extreme heat can worsen pre-existing conditions, such as heart disease and diabetes, especially among children and the elderly. The number of deaths that can be linked to temperature extremes is expected to rise from 33 in 1990 to between 43 and 71 per year by 2050. As temperatures rise in Marion County, air quality may also decline. Ozone particles stay near the ground in hot weather, triggering asthma attacks and exacerbating high blood pressure. Since cold winters currently control populations of mosquitoes and ticks, warming trends could well promote a sharp increase in the number of both pests, which could in turn allow the disease they carry to infect more people. It is likely that the emissions cuts that would reduce global warming would save more lives in Indiana than in most other states. The growing season in Marion County has already lengthened significantly. By the 2050s, it is expected to lengthen by at least thirty days under high emission scenarios. The longer growing season will likely increase crop productivity in Marion County, though not as much as one might expect. The increasing number of high heat days will likely damage some crops, and the increase in precipitation during winter and spring, together with the rise in extreme precipitation events, should increasingly wash fertilizer and nutrients from the soil into nearby watersheds. Nevertheless, Indiana is likely to remain the top producer of corn and soybeans. Marion County will therefore growing increasingly uncomfortable and unhealthy for many of its residents, yet a key sector of its economy - agricultural production - may in fact benefit from at least modest warming. These benefits will likely decline sharply in high emissions scenarios, and it is therefore in the interest of Marion County residents to contribute to a lower-carbon future. Further reading:2014 EPA Clean Power Plan. EPA. Impacts of Climate Change for the State of Indiana. EPA. Indiana’s Past and Future Climate. Purdue University. Article author: Eve Kelly, Georgetown University
Article editor: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University
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Climate changes and the local environment: As the concentration of greenhouse gases increases, temperatures are expected to rise across the United States. Under a high emissions scenario, which occurs if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, Buffalo County could see an increase in mean daily maximum temperature from 61˚F to 72˚F by 2100. The average number of days with a minimum temperature below 32 ˚F between 1950 and 2004 was 168 days. This figure is projected to decrease to approximately 110 days by 2100. On the other hand, the number days with a maximum temperature above 95 ˚F will increase from 20 (1950 to 2004 average) to 70 days by 2100. This is significant as this represents an approximately 250% change in days with high heat. It should be noted that the specific figures for the predicted temperature changes are based on the median predicted value from all projections under the high emissions scenario. As the temperature increases, the amount of precipitation is also expected to rise by up to 35 percent, particularly in the spring, compared to the 1960-1970 average by 2080 under a high emissions scenario. However, a large portion of this increase will be accounted for by heavy downpours and more intense storms because as the air warms it is able to hold and then consequently release more water vapor. Because of this, Buffalo County will see an increase in both the risk and severity of summertime drought. The state of South Dakota is projected to see a 75% increase in its summer drought threat index. Additionally, the soil is expected to become drier as the warmer temperatures increase the rate of evaporation and water use by plants. Increased precipitation will only partially offset this because with a higher number of heavy precipitation events the ground will absorb less water and more will run off. The runoff, especially into the Missouri River, which borders Buffalo County, will increase the risk of inland flooding. How we know: The projections for temperature and precipitation come from the publically available US Climate Resilience Toolkit and Climate Explorer developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Based on historical weather data collected from weather stations in Buffalo County and surrounding areas, it computes models of future precipitation and temperatures under both high and low emission scenarios. Information about the drought and inland flooding risk comes from States at Risk’s Report Card for South Dakota developed by analysts at Climate Central and ICF International. The report assesses how much a state is threatened by and prepared for future extreme heat, drought, wildfires, inland flooding, and coastal flooding. Information about predicted changes in the soil come from a 2016 Environmental Protection Agency report “What Climate Change Means for South Dakota.” Human consequences: Although the predicted climate changes are less severe in Buffalo County than in other parts of the United States, their impacts are exacerbated by the fact that this county is the second poorest in the United States (2017) and that its residents are part of one of the most marginalized groups in the United States. The majority of Buffalo County is part of the Crow Creek Indian Reservation inhabited by the Crow Creek Sioux Tribe. Of the 2,038 residents, 74.9% are Native American and 18.5 % are white. With the lowest median per capita income in the United States and with more than 70% of the residents unemployed, roughly 50 % of the population lives under the federal poverty line. Many homes in this county lack indoor plumbing and kitchens. Families struggle to pay their electric and heating bills. Increased inland flooding especially for those living near the Missouri River and the associated property damages will present an increased economic burden in the future. As the number of days with freezing temperature decrease, people will need to heat their homes for less days a year relieving some financial strain. The number of days with extreme heat will increase, but most families cannot afford air conditioning. High heat will have detrimental health effects on the elderly, young children, and people with pre-existing conditions, such as asthma. The changes in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture will also impact agriculture in this county. Shorter, more mild winters and warmer summers may extend the growing season, but will also increase the abundance of pests and weeds. However, the drier soil and increased risk of droughts threaten crop yield. Agriculture is the second most common form of employment here, and therefore, changes threaten to make a poor population even poorer. Most importantly, the predicted threats will impact the religion and cultural of the population living here. The Sioux tribes have a deep spiritual connection to the land, water, and animals. In response to the projected increase in temperatures and precipitation, wildlife will shift their ranges and migration patterns and will face habitat loss and heightened mortality. Many traditional foods gathered from the grasslands, including plants, roots, fruits, and mushrooms, will experience a change in their timing and abundance. These changes threaten the deep relationship the residents of this county feel with the environment around them. Climate change will not only continue the cycle of poverty in Buffalo county but will also impact their traditions. Further reading: Climate Change Perspectives from Indian Country. The Hill What Climate Change Means for South Dakota. EPA Article author: Anna Braendle, Georgetown University
Article editor: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University Climate changes and the local environment:Since 1970, average annual temperatures in Arizona have soared. In densely-populated Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, average annual temperatures have risen by over 7° F (nearly 4° C), which is roughly four times the global average. In no major U.S. city have temperatures climbed more quickly. This remarkable rise has sharply increased the frequency of particularly extreme weather. In the summer of 2017, for example, a heat wave sent temperatures soaring to over 120° F (nearly 50° C). Summer days with relatively cool temperatures, by contrast, have grown scarce. From June to September 2017, only 14 days had high temperatures lower than 100° F. Higher temperatures have increased rates of evaporation across Arizona, and therefore dried much of the state. Average annual precipitation in Maricopa County has actually increased slightly over the past century, yet precipitation in mid to late summer has declined substantially. Summer droughts have therefore become common in Maricopa County. Warming, drying trends have created ideal conditions for wildfires across Arizona, including in Maricopa County. Wildfires in Arizona have therefore grown more frequent, and they last longer. In spring 2017, a wildfire in Maricopa County’s Tonto National Forest consumed some 500 acres of woodland. How we know:These reconstructions are largely based on reliable, easy to use tools that are freely accessible online: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) State Annual and Seasonal Time Series, the NOAA Climate at a Glance app, the National Drought Mitigation Center's United States Drought Monitor. NOAA's State Annual and Seasonal Time Series and Climate at a Glance tools use data collected at weather stations and stored in NOAA's U.S. Climate Divisions database. The Drought Monitor compiles weekly maps of drought conditions across the United States, and combines climate, soil, and water data with reports from 350 experts across the country. Human consequences:Rising summer temperatures in Arizona have increased the number of heat-related deaths in Maricopa County. Especially hot, dry weather can provoke dehydration and heat stroke, and can interfere with cardiovascular, respiratory, and nervous systems. The very old, the very young, and the sick are especially vulnerable, particularly in poor neighborhoods where some households might not have dependable access to air conditioning. Employees who spend most of their time outside - such as construction workers - are also at risk. Heat-related threats to human health can be especially great in cities like Phoenix, where paved surfaces create urban heat sinks that amplify hot temperatures. In 2016, Maricopa County endured 130 heat-related deaths, the most in the last 15 years. On average, Arizona hospitals now treat almost 2,000 patients per year for heat-related illnesses. Many injuries and deaths not only reflect warming trends, but also social and infrastructural problems that make it hard for people to escape the heat. Wildfires in Arizona, including in Maricopa County, have also proven costly for state and federal governments. Containing the Arizona wildfires has cost many millions of dollars, and the total costs of wildfires can exceed suppression costs by more than 30 times. In Maricopa County, smoke billowing from fires in Tonto National Forest, for example, shut down Bush Highway. Foresters have conducted controlled burns to limit the future risk of major wildfires in the forest, but prolonged drought has foiled some of these efforts. In Phoenix, the municipal government has taken steps to lower the city's contribution to climate change. It has expanded public transit, constructed new bike lanes, purchased electric vehicles, installed low-energy bulbs in street lighting, and set ambitious goals for cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Still, adapting to climate change has proven to be an even more daunting task, especially for the city's less affluent residents. Further reading:A Building Boom and Climate Change Create an Even Hotter, Drier Phoenix. LA Times Phoenix Will Be Almost Unlivable by 2050 Thanks to Climate Change. Vice Article author: Luke Powers, Georgetown University
Article editor: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University Climate changes and the local environment:Over the past century, average annual temperatures have soared across Montana, rising by almost 2° C (3° F) relative to twentieth-century averages. Warming has shortened winters, and earlier thawing has prevented snow from accumulating. Hotter spring, summer, and fall temperatures have also increased the rate of evaporation across Montana. Average annual precipitation in Montana has increased modestly. However, rainfall has only increased in the early spring and late fall, and precipitation in the summer has actually become more scarce. The summer dry season is therefore drier and longer than it once was. Extreme droughts are now much more likely to occur than they once were. Together, these changes have created ideal conditions for wildfires in heavily forested but sparsely populated Garfield County, Montana. In the summer of 2017, no fewer than 21 wildfires broke out in Montana during a particularly severe, long-lasting drought. Together, the wildfires consumed nearly 1.3 million acres of forest, and two fires alone each burned across over 100,000 acres. National data suggests that climate change, not shifting forest management practices, were responsible for the 2017 wildfires in Garfield county. Beginning in the 1980s, large wildfires across the United States suddenly grew more common, and lasted longer, especially in regions lightly touched by forest management practices. Almost everywhere, rising spring and summer temperatures, and an earlier spring snowmelt, were largely to blame. By burning through old trees and brush, wildfires can bring new life to a forest, making way for diverse plant species and creating new habitats for animals. Yet the dramatic increase in the frequency, scale, and length of wildfires in Montana has interfered with the ability of forests to recover. How we know:These reconstructions are largely based on reliable, easy to use tools that are freely accessible online: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) State Annual and Seasonal Time Series, the NOAA Climate at a Glance app, the National Drought Mitigation Center's United States Drought Monitor. NOAA's State Annual and Seasonal Time Series and Climate at a Glance tools use data collected at weather stations and stored in NOAA's U.S. Climate Divisions database. The Drought Monitor compiles weekly maps of drought conditions across the United States, and combines climate, soil, and water data with reports from 350 experts across the country. These reconstructions also draw on visualizations provided by the National Interagency Fire Center, which has created a tool that predicts the potential of new wildfires based on previous weather conditions. They also rely on an important 2006 study in the journal Science, which finds clear links between warming and wildfires. Human consequences:In recent decades, the environment of Garfield County has grown more dangerous for its human residents. In 2017, the Lodgepole wildfire spread into Garfield County and eventually consumed an area the size of New York City. After billions of dollars were spent to control the fire, and two firefighters lost their lives, the county nevertheless lost over 20 buildings. Meanwhile, drought and wildfires have together undermined cattle ranching, a staple of Montana's economy and culture. Fires not only destroyed grazing land and killed cattle, but also incinerated nearly 2,300 km (1,300 miles) of fencing, and required costly hay imports. Some ranchers have had to sell cattle in huge quantities because there is no more grazing land to support them, and many ranchers will lose "genetics" that have taken years to hone. Young ranchers have seen their businesses ruined before they ever got off the ground. The destructiveness of the 2017 wildfires have provoked renewed debate about logging in the forests of Montana. Advocates insist that logging reduces the risk of forest fires and spurs Montana's economy. Skeptics point out that although millions of acres of forest have been cleared of dangerous fire "fuels" - including in Garfield County - wildfires nevertheless burned uncontrollably. Droughts worsened by climate change have overwhelmed local attempts to confront wild fires. Further reading:Long-term Losses of Montana's Fire Season Amount to Much More than Scorched Grass. Billings Gazette Montana Wildfires Reignite Logging Debate. NPR Wildfire Myths: Logging the Forest Won’t Save It. Counter Punch Garfield County Community Wildfire Protection Plan. Walsh Environmental Scientists and Engineers, LLC Article author: Sabine Neschke, Georgetown University
Article editor: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University Climate changes and the local environment:Mohave County is located in Northwestern Arizona, and includes part of the Grand Canyon National Park, as well as several federally recognized Native American Reservations. Its annual average temperatures have risen by an average of 0.2°F per decade between 1895 and 2016. However, this average hides the fact that average temperatures in the county and the state were mostly stable until roughly 1975. After that year, the trend in average temperatures began rising very quickly, and this caused a worrying increase in the frequency and intensity of wildfires and droughts. These weather and climate-related events have had devastating effects in the local environment. As much as 15 per cent of Arizona is covered by national forests, and the hotter and drier conditions have made it easier for wildfires to occur. According to U.S. Forest Service records, large wildfires (of more than 1,000 acres) in the state have increased from approximately 5 per year before 1980, to a current average of near 20. Drought has affected the Colorado river, a source of water for over 30 million people, including a large share of Mohave County and the State of Arizona. For example, the Upper Colorado Basin has seen more common and severe droughts in the last 50 to 90 years. In the period between 2000 and 2014, the river’s flow declined by 19 per cent compared to the average between 1906 and 1999. Researchers have estimated that warmer temperatures account for up to one-sixth of these losses, which are approximately equal to enough water to support 1 million households for a year. How we know:These climate and weather reconstructions are based on several tools made available online by several United States agencies, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s State Annual and Seasonal Time Series. This site is useful to see the evolution of temperatures at the state level since 1895, and its information is obtained from the U.S. Climate Divisional Dataset, used often for agricultural matters. NOAA’s Climate at a Glance tool is intended for studying the changes and variability of climate, and has adjusted the data to take into account artificial effects that affect climate, such as urbanization. Another important resource is the United States Drought Monitor, which develops weekly maps of drought conditions across the country, and uses climate, soil, and water data, together with reports from 350 experts across the country. The U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit helps people become informed about their risks and opportunities related to the changing climate, and to help them become more resilient. One of its tools is the Climate Explorer, which allows users to explore the potential damaging effects of climate on the population and their valued possessions, such as land and crops. To do this, it shows projections of temperatures, precipitation, and others for two possible futures: one in which humans make a moderate attempt to reduce their carbon emissions, and another in which humans continue to act as usual. Some of the biggest effects of climate change in Arizona have been linked to health concerns, disruptions in the water supply for farms and cities, and the destruction of the environment with wildfires. In the summer of 2017, the state made nationwide news when numerous flights were cancelled in Phoenix due the excessive heat. These extreme temperatures caused near 1,300 deaths between 2005 and 2015, and the number of heat-related illnesses has been increasing, according to a medical director at the Banner University Medical Center in Phoenix. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has reported that more than 2 per cent of the land in Arizona has burned per decade since 1984, and the smoke produced often damages the quality of the air and water, and creates health problems for the population. In Mohave County, the most significant human consequences of climate change can be found in the water supply disruption to households, and in the Native American communities. Decreasing water reserves in important bodies of water like Lake Mead, and the increasing water needs due to growing cities and new farms that move from California’s even more extreme water shortage, have led to severe concerns and restrictions on water use. Native American tribes have seen their traditional practices challenged, as they are typically very dependent on agriculture and the raising of livestock, which in turn depend on weather and the availability of water. For the Mohave tribe, a drier Colorado River means a disruption to their traditions, as they believe that the river was created by their ancient deity Mastamho as part of their sacred landscape. Despite this worrisome picture, in a Climate Central report, Arizona’s government received a failing grade for its average level of wildfire preparedness, and a near-failing grade for its drought preparedness, as its plans do not account for the devastating effects of climate change. Further reading:The Future is Drying Up. NY Times Magazine Where the River Runs Dry. The New Yorker The $2.4 Billion Plan to Water California by Draining the Mojave. Wired Wildfires, Once Confined to a Season, Burn Earlier and Longer. NY Times Article author: Alejandro Carrera Rodriguez, Georgetown University
Article editor: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University Climate changes and the local environment:Genesee County, Michigan has warmed steadily for more than a century. Although average annual temperatures in the state have climbed more slowly than the global trend, they have still risen by around 0.6° C (1.1° F) relative to twentieth-century averages. Michigan is known for its long and snowy winter seasons. Rising temperatures, however, have sharply shortened the length of winter across the state. The total number of days in the winter season with at least 2.5 cm (1 inch) of snow cover has declined sharply since 1920, with most of the decline happening since 1980. As winter grows shorter, snow falls less frequently. Yet that does not necessarily mean that winters have become less snowy across the state. Snowfall trends from county to county vary widely, in large part because water in the nearby Great Lakes cools more slowly than air. If the lakes are largely ice-free, warm water can heat up otherwise cool air blowing into Michigan. The air then absorbs moisture and deposits it as "lake-effect" snow in some, but not all of, Michigan. Now that the Great Lakes are ice-free for much longer than they were, on average, in the twentieth century, blizzards have grown more common in Michigan even as winters have grown shorter. Overall, precipitation in all seasons has increased across Michigan, at a rate of roughly 1.5 mm/year since the 1930s. Much of the increase has come not through extreme events, but a steady rise in wet days that follow wet days. There are signs that cloudiness is now more frequent than it was in the twentieth century. In this context, Genesee County in Michigan has recently endured particularly extreme and destructive weather. In March 2012, for example, temperatures in a normally cold month soared to a record-shattering 31° C (88° F). In January 2014, a severe snowstorm dropped 18 inches of snow on the county, the second-heaviest fall since 1975. How we know:These reconstructions rely on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) State Annual and Seasonal Time Series and a freely available report, "Historical Climate Trends in Michigan and the Great Lakes Region," by Dr. Jeffrey Andresen of the Department of Geography at Michigan State University. NOAA's State Annual and Seasonal Time Series relies largely on weather station measurements. Adresen's report largely draws on data collected by weather instruments but also includes information from other sources, such as observations from aircraft. Human consequences:Heat waves and blizzards brought about by rising temperature trends have imposed high costs on Michigan, including Genesee county. Nation-wide statistics suggest that the elderly, especially those with limited mobility and insufficiently insulated or air conditioned houses, are in great danger during both extreme heat and blizzards. Heat waves can also damage roads and train tracks, impose strains on energy and water resources, and lower crop yields if they arrive in key development stages. Yet in Michigan, a trend towards wetter weather may also have had beneficial impacts for regional agriculture. Computer simulations show that increases in soil moisture available to corn at mid-season, and a rise in plant-available water in the soil profile over the whole season, have both increased corn yields across Michigan. Until now, global warming has therefore had a complex mix of beneficial and destructive impacts on Michigan, and therefore on Genesee county. Article author: Diana Lowitt, Georgetown University
Article editor: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University Climate changes and the local environment:Average annual temperatures across California have been rising since the nineteenth century, a trend that has sharply accelerated since around 1970. Average temperatures across all seasons in Tulare County in south central California have mirrored that statewide pattern. As the county warmed, it suffered a series of severe droughts, which are usually defined as long-lasting moisture deficits that have environmental and social consequences. Droughts in the county involve three sources of water: surface water at low elevations, snow at high elevations, and groundwater buried below the surface. Precipitation in much of California has long varied by as much as 50% from year to year. Hotter temperatures, however, are increasing the rate of evaporation across California, including in Tulare County. That has affected both mountain snow and lowland liquid water, and has made local droughts even longer and drier than they once were. One of the most severe droughts in the county's history recently began in 2014 and lasted until early 2017. It was part of a broader Californian drought that started in coastal areas several years earlier, and was up to 27% more likely to occur in our warmer climate. How we know:These reconstructions rely on several easy to use tools that are available online: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) State Annual and Seasonal Time Series, the NOAA Weekly Palmer Drought Indices, and the National Drought Mitigation Center's United States Drought Monitor. NOAA's State Annual and Seasonal Time Series relies largely on weather station measurements. NOAA's Palmer Drought Indices use a standard way of measuring drought that considers both water supply and demand in a soil moisture model. Negative values represent droughts, and positive values represent wet conditions. The United States Drought Monitor uses a number of drought indicators, including the Palmer Drought Indices, that consider both environmental and social manifestations of water shortages. The above reconstructions also draw on an important study in Geophysical Research Letters, which estimates the possible contribution of global warming to the 2012-2014 drought in California. Human consequences:Severe droughts since the 1970s have badly hurt Californian farmers. In 2015 alone, farmers could not grow crops on nearly 500,000 acres of farmland, which accounted for a large share of the drought's annual economic cost to the state of nearly $3 billion. Tulare county was among the hardest-hit communities. The county has been one of the most productive agricultural counties in the United States. Its economy depends on the dairy industry, as well as crops such as oranges and grapes, which all require abundant water. Not only did these industries suffer particular hardships during the drought, but the drought also lasted longer in Tulare than it did in most other Californian counties. In 2014, the Tulare county Board of Supervisors declared a state of emergency and requested water transfers into the county from other parts of California. Yet hundreds of local wells remained dry into 2017. Many of the county's farms resorted to over-exploiting groundwater that may never fully recover, leaving them more vulnerable to future droughts that a changing climate will make longer and drier. While the recent drought has now ended, it may have long-lasting consequences for local agriculture. Further reading:
Article author: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University
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