Predicted waterflow of Yakima river, October to September. Black = historic average, Blue = 2020 – 2040, Red = 2080. Source: Vano et al., “Climate Change Impacts on Water Management and Irrigated Agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA.” Climatic Change 102, No. 1 (2010): 287–317. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9856-z. Climate changes and the local environment: For Yakima county located in central Washington, the effects of climate change include both higher temperatures and an increased risk of drought. Yakima is in a Mediterranean climate similar to the climate of Greece and California. This climate is characterized by mild winters and hot summers; most precipitation – an average of 8.3 inches in Yakima – falls in the winter instead of the summer. Already hot, Yakima is expected to get hotter. Analysis by NOAA suggests that even in a “low emission” scenario, the weighted-average daily maximum temperature will be 61.4 degrees Fahrenheit in 2080. With “high emissions,” this temperature will increase to 64.5 degrees Fahrenheit. There is a large difference between these temperatures and the 2000’s maximum daily temperature of 55.3 degrees Fahrenheit. Drought is more likely to occur because of climate change. A tributary of the Columbia River, the Yakima river starts in the Cascade mountains. Water from the Yakima river comes from five reservoirs run by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation: Lake Keechelus, Lake Kachess, Lake Cle Elum, Rimrock Lake, and Bumping Lake. The total volume of these reservoirs is around one million acre-feet of water. Because of winter snowpack, these reservoirs can easily fill-up in the spring. Snowpack is essential for these reservoirs to remain full. Less snowpack, however, would result in lower water levels in the reservoirs which are more likely to remain empty as the dry summer months continue each year. How we know: Data for rainfall was projected using a “variable infiltration capacity macroscale hydrology” model. One of the advantages of this simulation type is that scientists can use it to predict changes based not only on watersheds in Washington but based on other watersheds, that are out of the state, that could impact Washington’s water. This data was generated between 1916 and 2006, however it has been modified on each month to better reflect the changing climate that will occur 2020s, 2040s, 2080s via the delta method. Using the data from these simulations, scientists can evaluate both snowpack and streamflow. The “Snow Water Equivalent” graph below compares the predicted amount of water in a snowpack on April first in comparison to historical data. Additionally, projected and historical temperature data is supplemented from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climate explorer tool (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2020). This free, reliable, online tool gathers precipitation from on the ground metrological stations located both around the country and around the state. This tool predicts both scenarios with high greenhouse emissions, and low greenhouse emissions. Human consequences: Because Yakima gets so much sun, it is a center for agriculture with the highest market value from farming in the state. In addition to growing the most squash in the state, the county grows the most apples, cherries and pears. Furthermore, Yakima county produces more hops than any where else in the United States. In 2017, there were 2,952 farms in Yakima, with a combined total area of 1,781,463 acres. Ninety-six percent of these farms are family owned. The Yakima river basin is one of the most irrigated areas in the United States. Fifteen percent of farm area, or 260,023 acres, are irrigated through canals, many of which were built in the late nineteenth century. Yet, since 1977, the Yakima basin has experienced seven droughts, and numerous low water years. Climate change will only exacerbate these issues, droughts will become more frequent and more severe. As most of the precipitation shifts from snowpack to rain, there will be less water stored in reservoirs. Therefore, the Yakima river will have less streamflow. For farmers who get their water from the Yakima river, a drastically reduced flow will hamper growing efforts. In addition, the Yakima river provides crucial spawning and rearing habitat for several salmon species. Fish, of course, need water to survive. One study found that the spawning ground for Coho Salmon and Fall Chinook will decrease because of climate change. The Yakima Tribe of Indians has tribal water rights to protect fish in the Yakima river under an 1855 treaty, however these rights were vague. The famous Ecology v Acquavella et. al. case settled in 2019 established primary water rights for the Yakima nation and addressed instream flows necessary to maintain fish and other aquatic life. Further reading:Ecology v Acquavella - Washington State Department of Ecology. Yakima River Basin. USGS. Identifying Stakeholder-Relevant Climate Change Impacts: A Case Study in the Yakima River Basin. Climatic Change. Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA. Climatic Change. Article author: Devlin Mee, William O. Douglas Honors College, Central Washington University
Article editor: Dr. Tamara Caulkins, William O. Douglas Honors College, Central Washington University
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Climate changes and the local environment:Over the past century, warming oceans have significantly accelerated the melting of polar ice sheets, releasing trillions of tons of freshwater into the ocean. This melt, coupled with the increased volume occupied by warm water, has gradually raised sea levels in Fairfield County. Bridgeport, one of largest cities in the county, has endured 5 inches of sea level rise since 1964. The county has also faced a real but erratic increase in annual precipitation. As global temperatures rise, the atmosphere is capable of holding more moisture, which in turn allows for more rainfall. More important than the modest trend in average precipitation in the county is a much more dramatic trend in heavy downpours since the 1950s. Torrential downpours, in addition to rising sea levels, have sharply increased the risk of flooding across Fairfield County. How we know: These reconstructions are based on easily-accessible online tools, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Tides & Currents tool, the NOAA Climate at a Glance app, as well as Climate Central’s research report. NOAA’s Tides & Currents tool generates graphs of monthly mean sea levels for individual cities and counties. These graphs use sea level data collected from one of hundreds of sea level stations across the country, and include a long-term linear trend line. NOAA’s Climate at a Glance app uses data collected at weather stations and stored in NOAA's U.S. Climate Divisions database to create graphs about temperature, precipitation, and drought. This app can generate graphs that present global, regional, and local trends. Climate Central’s Heaviest Downpours research report displays the increase in heavy downpours in the United States. At each station, a heavy downpour was defined as the top 1 percent daily precipitation amounts over the period from 1950 to 2014. The analysis is based on precipitation observations from 2,962 climate stations across the US. Human consequences:Rising sea levels, an increase in overall precipitation, and more severe storms have greatly increased Fairfield County’s risk for floods. Over 130,000 people in the state are currently at risk of inland flooding, while heavy downpours and rising sea levels have strained the County’s sewer system. This stress on the County’s unprepared infrastructure has severely impacted both human and aquatic health. In particular, the rise in rain storms has increased levels of runoff. Within Fairfield County, the city of Bridgeport operates under a combined sewer system, meaning that rainwater runoff, domestic sewage, and industrial wastewater are all transported within the same pipe. During heavy storms where the rainfall exceeds the system’s capacity, the system is designed to overflow and release excess water into nearby bodies of water. These overflows, called combined sewer overflows (CSOs), have considerable impacts on the local environment of Fairfield County. CSOs present an environmental and public health risk for the County, as the untreated wastewater that is discharged can contain bacteria, raw sewage, excess nutrients from fertilizers, and chemicals. This particularly impacted Bridgeport, as portions of the city’s sewer system were built over 100 years ago. The Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection found that a CSO occurs whenever there is 0.4 inches of precipitation or more. Overflows from the system occur on average every 10 days, releasing between 100,000 and 500,000 gallons of contaminated water into local rivers, streams, and harbors. With the increasing rate at which heavy downpours are taking place in Bridgeport, this leaves the public exposed to bacteria and raw sewage, creating a considerable health risk. The increasingly high levels of contamination have also undermined recreational activity, often leading to the closure of multiple beaches and parks. In Bridgeport the following parks, beaches, and harbors are constantly affected: Ash Creek, Bridgeport Harbor, Black Rock Harbor, Pequonnock Harbor, Johnson’s Creek, Yellow Mill Pond, Cedar Creek, Burr Creek, and Island Brook. Moreover, the loss of fishing grounds in Bridgeport has greatly disturbed the fishing industry. Leaked sewage has and will continue to kill tens of thousands of acres of shellfish beds. Additionally, hypoxia, or the overgrowth of algae that leads to dangerously low levels of oxygen for aquatic life, will continue to appear throughout the County as excess fertilizers enter these ecosystems. These “dead zones” are detrimental for aquatic species and will only further degrade the County’s water quality. Fairfield County, and specifically the Bridgeport Water Pollution Control Authority (WPCA), have already taken measures to combat the damages from CSOs. The WPCA has developed a plan to minimize the number of CSOs, and has implemented green infrastructure to prevent or delay stormwater from entering the sewer system. Although these efforts have helped reduce the number of overflows, Fairfield County nevertheless must invest in more infrastructure and a new system in order to mitigate the damages caused by stormwater runoff and severe floods. Further reading:Some CT beaches considered among the dirtiest. EyeWitness News Water quality at Bridgeport, Fairfield beaches dropped in 2016. CT Post Bridgeport plans massive sewer upgrades. CT Post Combined Sewer Overflow Guide for City Employees. Bridgeport WPCA Article author: James Loughran, Georgetown University
Article editor: Maddie Bowen, Georgetown University Climate changes and the local environment:Within the past century, the average temperature in Los Angeles County has increased by 3˚C. The number of days with a maximum temperature above 90˚ F has increased steadily over the past 20 years and is projected to continue rising. In addition to warmer average temperatures, Los Angeles County has experienced a decrease in precipitation during the fall and winter seasons. Increasing temperatures and decreasing levels of precipitation have increased the County’s risk for more severe droughts, as well as wildfires. Los Angeles County receives the majority of its annual rainfall during the late fall through early spring, then experiences a dry season during the summer months. The amount of winter season precipitation Los Angeles experiences has decreased over the past century, and this decline is predicted to continue. This reduction in rainfall means that there is less moisture in the soil at the beginning of the summer, which is the County’s dry season. The water evaporates from the soil and plants during the summer, and less winter precipitation ultimately leaves the vegetation drier earlier in the year. In addition to lower levels of rainfall, rising temperatures are reinforcing dryer and hotter summers in Los Angeles County. Higher annual temperatures lead to earlier snowpack melting, meaning that the winter season is shorter, there is less moisture in the soil during the dry season, and that the dry season is even longer. Warming temperatures also speed up evaporation, thus drying out the soil and parching the trees and vegetation. Drier and hotter summers have increased Los Angeles County’s drought risk, and by 2050 California’s risk of summertime drought is expected to almost triple. California’s dry and hot summers have always made the state more vulnerable to wildfires; however, rising temperatures and lower levels of precipitation have made the fire seasons longer and more severe. Los Angeles County’s fire season has already lengthened by approximately 75 days, and will likely increase in the future as well. With a longer and wetter winter season, Los Angeles County’s vegetation would soak up moisture which could help prevent summertime wildfires. This moisture dried out slowly through the summer season until it could be replenished the following fall. However, because the summer season has grown longer and hotter, and fall and winter rainfalls have decreased, flammable tinder has accumulated to high levels. Moreover, fire suppression over the last several decades has only added to the dangerous levels of tinder that has been available, and will continue to be available, to burn. How we know:These reconstructions are based on two easy to use tools that are freely accessible online: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate at a Glance tool and National Drought Mitigation Center's United States Drought Monitor. NOAA's Climate at a Glance tool uses data collected at weather stations and stored in NOAA's U.S. Climate Divisions database. This data is used to generate graphs about temperature, precipitation, and droughts, with the ability to look at global, national, and local averages. The Drought Monitor produces maps of drought conditions across the United States and publishes them weekly. The tool combines climate, soil, and water data with reports from 350 experts across the country. This generates an assessment of current drought conditions nationally, with the ability to look at data for individual states or counties. Human consequences:Warmer average temperatures, dryer seasons, and changing seasonal time frames have increased the number of wildfires in Los Angeles County, as well as in the intensity of the flames. Of the 20 largest fires to ever occur in California, two of them occurred in the last 10 years in Los Angeles County: the Thomas Fire in 2017 and the Station Fire in 2009. Over the past 50 years, summertime forest fires in the state have increased in size by approximately 800%, and 11.2 million residents in California currently live in areas with elevated risk for wildfires. Residents of Los Angeles County have already experienced the severe impacts of these wildfires. Wildfires release toxic smoke into the air, leaving dangerous air quality conditions, ash, and debris in their wake. Additionally, as wildfires rapidly spread, citizens can be forced to evacuate and in the worst situations, can lose their properties and homes to the fires. In 2018, the worst year of California wildfires on record, fires destroyed over 24,000 homes and buildings in the state. This increased risk of fire damage to residents’ homes has increased economic inequality in Los Angeles County, as wealth significantly enhances one’s possible response to wildfires. As early as 2005, wealthy individuals have been able to sign up for Private Fire Protection Services, typically at a high cost. While most individuals affected by fires were forced to flee their homes, wealthy individuals were able to wait out wildfires in luxury hotels while private firefighters worked to defend their properties from impending flames. This disparity was evident during the most recent Thomas Fire in 2017, when farm-owners left their properties to seek safety and returned to find their crops — and ultimately their livelihoods — destroyed. At the same time, many wealthy celebrities returned to their mansions on the beach, next-door to the farmers, with their properties untouched by the flames. Some climate activists have begun to refer to this emerging phenomenon as an impending “disaster apartheid.” As climate change continues to exacerbate wildfires and natural disasters become more frequent, there is a worry that a divide will form between “common” middle- and lower-class individuals and the wealthy elite. Los Angeles County will need to work especially hard in the near future to ensure that wealth does not drive a further wedge between its residents in the face of climate change. Further reading:California's New Normal: How the Climate Crisis is Fueling Wildfires and Changing Life in the Golden State. CNN California Wildfire Preparedness. States At Risk Why Does California Have So Many Wildfires? The New York Times Article Author: Benny Weisman, Georgetown University
Article Editor: Maddie Bowen, Georgetown University Climate changes and the local environment:As the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to increase, the average global temperature will increase as well. With an intermediate-low emission scenario, it is predicted that we could see an increase of 2 ̊C by 2100. Under the most extreme emissions scenario, average annual temperatures could rise by up to 4 ̊C in the coming century. Both emissions scenarios – either a 2 ̊C or 4 ̊C increase – will lead to global sea level rise. This increase in sea levels has two direct causes. First, thermal expansion of the world’s oceans occurs as average global temperatures, and thus oceanic temperatures, rise. This leads to an increase in kinetic energy of the water. This increase in molecular movement then causes an expansion in the water’s volume. Second, rising temperatures will speed up the melting of ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica. This melting will add more water to the Earth’s oceans and raise sea levels. Nantucket Island will continue to face extreme regional impacts as sea levels continue to rise. Given its location as an island off the coast of Massachusetts, Nantucket is especially susceptible to the effects of rising sea levels. If global temperatures increase by 2°C, Nantucket could see up to 10 feet of sea level rise. If temperatures increase by 4°C, oceans surrounding the County could rise by as much as 19 feet. In both emissions scenarios, all of historic Nantucket - a community hundreds of years old - would be underwater; however, with a rise in sea levels of 19 feet, a significant portion of the island could become submerged. The impacts of rising sea levels in Nantucket County will be intensified by coastal erosion. Nantucket is already losing coastal land at alarming rates due to the weathering of shorelines, a phenomenon exacerbated by potentially worsening hurricanes. Additionally, Nantucket County is an island composed of compacted sand, only making it more susceptible to coastal erosion. Portions of the island’s shorelines have already lost more than one hundred feet of coast depth in just the past decade. As global temperatures continue to rise, it will not just cause much of Nantucket to be below sea level, it will also speed up the erosion process until the island itself could cease to exist. How we know:These projections primarily rely on the free and easily accessible Tides and Currents tool by The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Climate Central’s Surging Seas: Risk Finder projections. NOAA’s Tides and Currents resource uses data collected from over 140 long-term water level stations to reconstruct local relative sea level trends. These measurements are averaged monthly in order to present an accurate linear sea level trend. Climate Central’s Surging Seas: Risk Finder generates projections for sea level rise, as well as flood risks, based on the different emissions scenarios in the NOAA Technical Reports. This tool generates the projections for Nantucket County using data from the Nantucket sound water level station, located 2 miles from central Nantucket. Human consequences:The year-round population in Nantucket County is approximately 12,000 individuals; however, due to tourism, the population swells to 60,000 during the summer months. The County has more than 800 buildings and structures which were built before the Civil War and are historically preserved through the island’s local governance. The majority of these preserved buildings were built around Nantucket Harbor, the historic hub of the island’s once-famous whaling industry. It is this harbor, along with the surrounding historic buildings, that will likely be submerged underwater, with even a 2°C global temperature increase, if decisive actions are not taken. Additionally, the majority of the County’s prime real estate is located along the coast. Under a low emissions scenario, the total value of homes in Nantucket at risk of rising sea levels and increased floods could reach $990,000,000 by 2050. As a result of the severe erosion that Nantucket has already experienced, many of the island’s most valuable properties and historic landmarks - including some of the United States’ oldest lighthouses - have had to undergo relocation. Moving these properties to inland sites will temporarily protect the structures, but this process has cost residents on the island millions of dollars and, if sea levels continue to rise, will result in future costs for decades to come. The most recent and effective, yet expensive, solution to this problem is the installation of geotubes. Geotubes are two hundred feet long, seven-and-a-half feet tall, and 20 feet wide. Stacked four high, they line the island’s beaches where erosion is most severe. While designed to withstand the force of the nonstop waves and stay firmly in place, the geotubes are covered with additional sand to make the engineered bluff look as natural as possible. Geotube sand coverage also contributes sand to the natural erosion process without risking further destruction of the island’s beaches. Ultimately, Nantucket County’s fate depends greatly on how quickly and effectively measures can be taken to combat rising global temperatures and sea level rise. If emissions continue at the current rate, Nantucket Island will likely cease to exist and with it, the highly lucrative tourism industry and centuries of history. Further reading:Nantucket's Bluffs and Beaches are Crumbling in the Face of Storms and Rising Seas. PRI Chronicle: Fighting Erosion on Nantucket. WCVB More Details on Geotubes. Siasconset Beach Preservation Fund Article author: Benny Weisman, Georgetown University
Article editor: Maddie Bowen, Georgetown University Climate changes and the local environment:Over the past century, Marin County has experienced eight inches of sea level rise, and by 2100 could ultimately see an increase of 16.6 to 65.8 inches. Global sea level rise, prompted by increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, can be attributed to two main factors: Arctic ice caps are melting, and oceans are warming thus expanding in volume. The most extreme emission scenario, which represents the worst possible future scenario, projects a 4ºC increase in temperatures and a global sea level rise of 8.9 meters. If current global emissions are restricted and warming is limited to 1.5ºC, global sea levels are still projected to rise by 2.9 meters. Marin County’s location on the coast of California makes it highly susceptible to the impacts of global sea level rise. The projected increase in sea levels will threaten beaches and wetlands, introduce salt water to inland areas, and displace native coastal organisms. In Marin County, 13,774 acres of land have already been declared vulnerable to the threats of sea level rise. Rising sea levels will increase the frequency and intensity of flooding, and the damages will be worsened due to large coastal storms. These storms will also become more severe, as the warming atmosphere is capable of holding more moisture. California is especially prone to infrequent, intense rain events, and often receives the majority of its annual precipitation in only one or two large storms. Sea level rise, combined with more intense storms and floods, will fundamentally alter Marin County’s environment by accelerating erosion, introducing saltwater to inland environments, and drastically altering coastal species’ habitats. In some cases, rising tides will make a portion of the County disappear completely. How we know:These projections and reconstructions are based on freely accessible online tools from The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Tides and Currents tool and the Climate Central Surging Seas: Risk Finder projections and tools. The NOAA Tides and Currents resource reports local mean sea level changes from 1850 to today. It uses data collected from U.S. and global water level stations to reconstruct local sea level trends. The Climate Central Surging Seas tool generates sea level projections based on the different emissions scenarios presented in the NOAA Technical Reports. This tool uses data from the San Francisco water level station to generate the coastal flood days graph. Human consequences:Rising sea levels and worsening floods will pose health threats to the residents of Marin County and may require citizens to relocate. Furthermore, it is likely these factors will compromise the County’s water quality. Occasionally, increased flooding could improve water quality due to water percolation through the soil; however, prolonged flooding more often stresses or over floods the soil, ultimately degrading water quality. With more frequent floods, salt water, excess nutrients from fertilizers, and sediment from erosion are expected to enter the groundwater in Marin County. In addition, the current storm water drainage will not be suited to handle more severe storms, causing flooding in the streets. This will also threaten human health, as it increases the risk that sewage systems will overflow and contaminate groundwater. Rising sea levels will also affect the properties in Marin County that are currently on the coast. In a lower emissions scenario projecting three feet of sea level rise, $4.2 billion worth of properties will be compromised. In an extreme emission scenario that forecasts 10 feet of sea level rise, property damages will reach nearly $9.3 billion. In 2016, the Public Policy Institute of California reported that one in five Californians lives in flood-prone areas. The costs to replace this vulnerable infrastructure could exceed $575 billion, as an increasing number of buildings will be in high-risk zones. As the effects of sea level rise and severe floods worsen in Marin County, residents and the local government must take steps to reduce current damages and to minimize future impacts. In response to increased flooding, Marin County has already widened creeks to reduce erosion, support higher water levels during floods, and restore wetlands. To combat sea level rise, Marin County has implemented structural defenses, such as floodwalls, levees, and tidal gates. Additionally, as the County recognizes that many future impacts cannot be mitigated, it promotes adaptive measures such as building elevated structures, relocation of at risk infrastructure, and planned retreats. The County’s website also includes an extensive action plan detailing flood prevention procedures and emergency protocols. As the impacts of severe floods and rising sea levels intensify, Marin County must continue to promote methods to mitigate and adapt to these changes. Further reading:California's Water. Public Policy Institute of California Flood Protection. Marin Watersheds Sea Level Rise. Marin Watersheds Article author: Esther Doerr, Georgetown University
Article editor: Maddie Bowen, Georgetown University FUTURE: rising temperatures, increased precipitation, and hardier crops in Marion County, Indiana4/30/2018 Climate changes and the local environment:As the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere continues to increase due to human emissions, average annual temperatures in Marion County, Indiana are expected to rise from an annual average of about 63.5°F in 2007 to an average of 69°F by 2100 under “low emission” predictions, or an average of 73.5°F under “high emission” predictions. Low emission conditions are estimated by assuming that we will at least moderately decrease our emissions in the near future, while high emission conditions assume that we will do nothing to change our current behavior. Without immediate action to reduce emissions, we can expect to have almost twenty times as many extreme heat days in Marion County. Extreme heat days are days when the highest temperatures rise above 95°F. Likewise, Marion County is expected to experience three to four times as many high heat nights, defined by temperatures 68°F or above, in the coming century under low and high emission scenarios respectively. Another consequence of climate change that Marion County will face in the coming years is a likely increase in rainfall. Average annual precipitation has been increasing since 1895 in Indiana, and is expected to continue to increase in the future, possibly by 6-8% within the next half century. Most of this rain is expected in the winter and spring, leaving the summer and fall months possibly drier than they are now. With increased precipitation, we also expect to see heavy downpours more often followed by more frequent flooding. How we know:The projections of future climate change presented in this article come mainly from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment compiled by Purdue University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Explorer tool. Both of these tools rely on temperature and precipitation data gathered at weather stations on the ground around the county and state. These historical values are then compared to predictions for the future compiled by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC creates future predictions with advanced computer models that evaluate the climate under different emissions scenarios. Human consequences:Rising temperature and changes in rain patterns will likely have serious consequences for the health of people in Marion County. Scientists expect higher rates of dehydration, heat stroke, and death. Extreme heat can worsen pre-existing conditions, such as heart disease and diabetes, especially among children and the elderly. The number of deaths that can be linked to temperature extremes is expected to rise from 33 in 1990 to between 43 and 71 per year by 2050. As temperatures rise in Marion County, air quality may also decline. Ozone particles stay near the ground in hot weather, triggering asthma attacks and exacerbating high blood pressure. Since cold winters currently control populations of mosquitoes and ticks, warming trends could well promote a sharp increase in the number of both pests, which could in turn allow the disease they carry to infect more people. It is likely that the emissions cuts that would reduce global warming would save more lives in Indiana than in most other states. The growing season in Marion County has already lengthened significantly. By the 2050s, it is expected to lengthen by at least thirty days under high emission scenarios. The longer growing season will likely increase crop productivity in Marion County, though not as much as one might expect. The increasing number of high heat days will likely damage some crops, and the increase in precipitation during winter and spring, together with the rise in extreme precipitation events, should increasingly wash fertilizer and nutrients from the soil into nearby watersheds. Nevertheless, Indiana is likely to remain the top producer of corn and soybeans. Marion County will therefore growing increasingly uncomfortable and unhealthy for many of its residents, yet a key sector of its economy - agricultural production - may in fact benefit from at least modest warming. These benefits will likely decline sharply in high emissions scenarios, and it is therefore in the interest of Marion County residents to contribute to a lower-carbon future. Further reading:2014 EPA Clean Power Plan. EPA. Impacts of Climate Change for the State of Indiana. EPA. Indiana’s Past and Future Climate. Purdue University. Article author: Eve Kelly, Georgetown University
Article editor: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University Climate changes and the local environment: Alaska is warming more than twice as quickly as the contiguous United States. Over the past 60 years, average annual temperatures in Alaska have increased by about 3°F. Winter warming has been even more extreme, with average seasonal temperatures rising by 6°F. Climate projections based on continuing high greenhouse gas emissions - known as "high emissions scenarios" - predict that average winter temperatures in towns across North Slope Borough in northern Alaska will rise by as much as 25°F in the coming century. By 2050, average annual temperatures across Alaska are expected to increase by 2 to 4°F. As Alaska continues to warm, melting sea ice and coastal erosion represent the two most pressing threats to North Slope Borough. Permafrost is a thick layer of soil, usually a foot or so down from the surface, that remains frozen year-round. Permafrost covers over 80% of Alaska, but that number is shrinking as rising temperatures cause permafrost to melt. When permafrost melts, the ground above it collapses, and methane enters the atmosphere. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, and although it does not stay in the atmosphere for long when compared to carbon dioxide, it can cause profound regional warming. Thus because melting permafrost also increases atmospheric methane, rising temperatures will provoke even more warming and melting. Increasing temperatures will also melt sea ice on the coasts of Alaska. Models that match historical trends predict that, by 2030, the entire Arctic could be ice-free in the summer. Loss of sea ice is dangerous for ecosystems in North Slope Borough. In the colder past, sea ice acted as a natural barrier to storms and waves. However, as the sea ice melts and recedes from the coastline, wind and water erosion is projected to increase accordingly, especially during big storms. Permafrost also once protected the North Slope Borough coasts from erosion, but it may not for much longer. How we know: These predictions are largely based on two easy-to-use tools that are freely accessible online: the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) GISS Surface Temperature Analysis and the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis (NSIDC). The GISS Surface Temperature Analysis tool uses maps to show global temperature anomalies, comparing current temperatures to temperatures in the 1951-1980 period. Mean temperatures are averaged over a specific time period and interval, and the analysis is updated monthly. Data is compiled from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s databases and satellites. The Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis tool provides updates and scientific analysis on the conditions of Arctic sea ice. The website publishes graphs and animated visuals documenting the extent, depth, and concentration of sea ice. The tool is run by National Snow and Ice Data Center scientists, along with support from NASA. Human consequences: Future climate change will likely have devastating consequences for North Slope Borough and its residents. The imminent reality of a seasonally ice-free Arctic may sound like a desirable outcome at first, seeing that some economic opportunities such as faster shipping routes, oil and gas exploration, and tourism may become available. However, coastal villages, which represent many of the residences in North Slope Borough, will face one of two unfortunate realities as erosion threatens homes. At best, residents will be forced to relocate inland, and at worst, homes and even lives will be lost to the sea. More than 30 villages in North Slope Borough have already been identified for relocation. Indigenous lives are especially threatened as climate change continues in the coming century. Alaskan Iñupiat make up fifty-two percent of all residents in North Slope Borough, according to a 2016 census. Many rely on a subsistence diet and are therefore relatively vulnerable to sudden changes in their surrounding ecosystems. Whales and seals, which are hunted out on the sea ice, constitute the majority of the protein in local Iñupiat diets. With the sea ice retreating, the accessible supplies of fish, game, and whales will decline, and Iñupiat hunters will have to brave dangerously thin ice in hopes of catching food. Thawing permafrost may also undermine human health and economic growth in North Slope Borough. These problems will include a loss of clean water, saltwater intrusion, and the expansion of diseases northward into the warming climate. Many villages, especially those of lower income, dig holes into the permafrost and use these to dispose of and contain sewage; however, as the permafrost thaws, the sewage will leak out, resulting in contamination and the spread of disease. Thawing permafrost will also contribute to increasing pollutant exposure to residents, as the soil contains a significant amount of mercury and carbon dioxide. Additionally, thawing permafrost is projected to add up to $6.1 billion in maintenance costs, as the uneven sinking of the ground will disrupt existing infrastructure. Unfortunately, many of these events will occur even if warming is slowed by curbing emissions. Combating these changes will require both adaptation and resilience in North Slope Borough and beyond. Further reading: Alaska Regional Climate Projections. Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning. Alaska. U.S. Global Change Research Program Article author: Georgia Brainard, Georgetown University
Article editor: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University Climate changes and the local environment: A 2013 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change layed out the specific ways in which global warming has changed, and will continue to shape, the planet’s many environmental systems. For Multnomah County, this means increasing average temperatures throughout the year, greater incidence of extreme heat days, and increased risk of flooding. Multnomah County, home to the city of Portland, rests on the bank of the Willamette River. Even with conservative estimates of climate change and a global increase of only 1 degree Celsius, Portland would experience significant flooding of up to seven feet. With a global temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius, the Limit set by The Paris Agreement on Climate, Portland would see fifteen feet of flooding. Multnomah’s average temperatures are also predicted to increase, and have been increasing notably since the mid 1950s according to the chart from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Alliance, and is predicted to rise at increasing rates for the next century. Even in the “low emissions” scenario, average temperature in Multnomah County is predicted to increase by about 4 degrees Farenheit in the next century, or up to 9 degrees Farenheit in the high emissions scenario. While Oregon as a whole has a highly variable climate, Multnomah county is a fairly consistent climate zone, ranging from a 40° F average in January to a 68° average in July. However, extreme heat days are predicted to quadruple in frequency from about ten a year in 2000 to 40 a year by 2050. This will have major sociological and economic implications for the county. How we know: These projections primarily rely on two tools that are freely accessible online: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Explorer app, and the Climate Central Surging Seas, Mapping Choices app. The Climate Explorer tool uses weather information recorded by meteorological instruments at weather stations to reconstruct past climate changes. It uses supercomputer simulations of future climate changes under both high and low emissions scenarios. The Surging Seas tool combines historic flood statistics and local sea level trends with global scenarios of sea level increases, which were compiled in the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment. Data from simulations like these is then combined with studies of local economy, current local policy, and state infrastructure to create resources like America’s Preparedness Report Card from Climate Central and ICF International. This resource synthesizes climate and sociological data and grades each state on its level of preparedness for each of five future climatological hazards related to climate change. Human consequences: In America’s Preparedness Report Card, Oregon as a whole received an “F” in Extreme Heat preparedness. Though extreme heat is not currently a major risk to the state, the projected increase of extreme heat days and Oregon’s lack of policy or public health plans designed to deal with that increase leaves Oregon, and Multnomah County, in a risky position. Extreme heat disproportionately harms vulnerable populations like the elderly, young children, and people experiencing homelessness. Without proper planning, Multnomah is unprepared for the public health costs and risks to its citizens that an increase in extreme heat days will bring. The increased frequency of wildfires and decreased air quality overall in the city of Portland already affects Multnomah county residents, and is predicted to worsen in coming decades, leaving asthma sufferers and others with compromised respiratory systems at particular risk for life threatening health complications. On a more general level, the Willamette Valley, including Multnomah County, is the most diverse agricultural area of the state, and is, therefore, reliant on predictable and consistent climatological and weather patterns to maintain this industry sector. Agriculture and recreation are major sectors of the Oregon economy, and even more so for Multnomah County at the intersection of agriculture and tourism from Portland. Therefore, damage from climate change—droughts and subsequent crop failures, urban space loss, and resident migrations—would be a major financial burden to the area. When surveyed, residents of Multnomah county have a higher than average awareness of climate issues, as well as higher than average concern over the impact of climatological effects. However, despite local governmental and community adaptations made to address the changing climate, a few key oversights leave Multnomah County vulnerable to the public health and infrastructural risks of climate change. Further reading: Article author: Madelyn Rice, Georgetown University
Article editor: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University FUTURE: rising sea levels, strengthening storms, and changing precipitation in Monmouth County3/23/2018 Climate changes and the local environment: Monmouth County spans across the lower portion of the neck of New Jersey, extending to the eastern coastline. A 2011 report from Columbia University identifies sea level, storm surge, and precipitation, all of which are expected to increase within the next century, as primary climate change associated concerns for New Jersey’s coastal areas. High concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere are causing warmer global temperatures. The result is thermal expansion and melting glacier mass that contribute to an increase in sea levels. Sea levels along the Jersey Shore have already risen 0.36 meters in the last century, and that number will increase sixfold to 2 meters by 2100. Moreover, a 2ºC increase in global temperatures will further this sea level increase to 4.7 meters. The renown beaches of the area will cease to exist as a result of sea level rise, negatively affecting marine life. Resulting higher flood levels will also disrupt wetlands and terrestrial life further in the county as they become open water. Plant composition and communities will, in fact, change, a disruption that will resonate with other organisms. Warming global temperatures will also increase the amount of precipitation the county will experience. Early snowmelt will make for wetter winter and spring months though this will actually intensify summer dryness. The warmer ocean surface temperatures are also likely to increase both the frequency and intensity of hurricanes that hit the area. Hurricanes increase both in frequency and in strength with warming sea surface temperature (SST). Projections predict more hurricanes like 2011’s Irene and 2012’s Sandy, both of which disrupted activity in Monmouth County, mostly due to flooding. How we know: These projections primarily rely on two tools that are freely accessible online: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Explorer app, and the Climate Central Surging Seas, Mapping Choices app. The Climate Explorer tool uses weather information recorded by meteorological instruments at weather stations to reconstruct past climate changes. It uses supercomputer simulations of future climate changes under both high and low emissions scenarios. The Surging Seas tool combines historic flood statistics and local sea level trends with global scenarios of sea level increases, which were compiled in the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment. Human consequences: The continuing increase in global temperatures will impact important industries, local businesses, and homes significantly as sea levels rise due to warming oceans and melting glacier mass. Beach erosion will contribute to much of the blow the region receives since they serve as a great source of revenue for the area by attracting tourists and allowing the growth of local businesses. The county’s coastal lakes are also integral in its commercial and recreational activities, and significant changes in the waters present an alarming concern for Monmouth county inhabitants. Notably, the shellfish industry that makes up 66% of New Jersey’s commercial fishing revenue is at risk as the population of such organism decrease as a result of ocean acidification. Similarly, homes along the coast will be destroyed due to greater storm surges. Over 9,000 homes ($5 billion in property value) housing 18,000 people will be at a 97% risk if Monmouth County sea levels reach the projected 4.7 meters. Thus, the livelihood of the county’s coastal inhabitants is in danger due to anthropogenic global warming leading to rising sea levels and flooding. The impacts of these climate change related changes will be especially hard-felt among low-income communities who have a high vulnerability. Moreover, hazardous waste sites that in areas predicted to experience high level of flooding present an additional worry for Monmouth County as flood waters can release harmful materials. While 2100 and the projected sea level and flooding changes seem far away, the threat they pose calls for immediate action. New Jersey has taken several mitigation measures to increase the resilience of its inhabitants. However, these efforts only confer higher taxes on the population in order to push forward rebuilding initiatives. Further reading: Article author: Armelle Déjoie, Georgetown University
Article editor: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University Climate changes and the local environment: As the concentration of greenhouse gases increases, temperatures are expected to rise across the United States. Under a high emissions scenario, which occurs if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, Buffalo County could see an increase in mean daily maximum temperature from 61˚F to 72˚F by 2100. The average number of days with a minimum temperature below 32 ˚F between 1950 and 2004 was 168 days. This figure is projected to decrease to approximately 110 days by 2100. On the other hand, the number days with a maximum temperature above 95 ˚F will increase from 20 (1950 to 2004 average) to 70 days by 2100. This is significant as this represents an approximately 250% change in days with high heat. It should be noted that the specific figures for the predicted temperature changes are based on the median predicted value from all projections under the high emissions scenario. As the temperature increases, the amount of precipitation is also expected to rise by up to 35 percent, particularly in the spring, compared to the 1960-1970 average by 2080 under a high emissions scenario. However, a large portion of this increase will be accounted for by heavy downpours and more intense storms because as the air warms it is able to hold and then consequently release more water vapor. Because of this, Buffalo County will see an increase in both the risk and severity of summertime drought. The state of South Dakota is projected to see a 75% increase in its summer drought threat index. Additionally, the soil is expected to become drier as the warmer temperatures increase the rate of evaporation and water use by plants. Increased precipitation will only partially offset this because with a higher number of heavy precipitation events the ground will absorb less water and more will run off. The runoff, especially into the Missouri River, which borders Buffalo County, will increase the risk of inland flooding. How we know: The projections for temperature and precipitation come from the publically available US Climate Resilience Toolkit and Climate Explorer developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Based on historical weather data collected from weather stations in Buffalo County and surrounding areas, it computes models of future precipitation and temperatures under both high and low emission scenarios. Information about the drought and inland flooding risk comes from States at Risk’s Report Card for South Dakota developed by analysts at Climate Central and ICF International. The report assesses how much a state is threatened by and prepared for future extreme heat, drought, wildfires, inland flooding, and coastal flooding. Information about predicted changes in the soil come from a 2016 Environmental Protection Agency report “What Climate Change Means for South Dakota.” Human consequences: Although the predicted climate changes are less severe in Buffalo County than in other parts of the United States, their impacts are exacerbated by the fact that this county is the second poorest in the United States (2017) and that its residents are part of one of the most marginalized groups in the United States. The majority of Buffalo County is part of the Crow Creek Indian Reservation inhabited by the Crow Creek Sioux Tribe. Of the 2,038 residents, 74.9% are Native American and 18.5 % are white. With the lowest median per capita income in the United States and with more than 70% of the residents unemployed, roughly 50 % of the population lives under the federal poverty line. Many homes in this county lack indoor plumbing and kitchens. Families struggle to pay their electric and heating bills. Increased inland flooding especially for those living near the Missouri River and the associated property damages will present an increased economic burden in the future. As the number of days with freezing temperature decrease, people will need to heat their homes for less days a year relieving some financial strain. The number of days with extreme heat will increase, but most families cannot afford air conditioning. High heat will have detrimental health effects on the elderly, young children, and people with pre-existing conditions, such as asthma. The changes in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture will also impact agriculture in this county. Shorter, more mild winters and warmer summers may extend the growing season, but will also increase the abundance of pests and weeds. However, the drier soil and increased risk of droughts threaten crop yield. Agriculture is the second most common form of employment here, and therefore, changes threaten to make a poor population even poorer. Most importantly, the predicted threats will impact the religion and cultural of the population living here. The Sioux tribes have a deep spiritual connection to the land, water, and animals. In response to the projected increase in temperatures and precipitation, wildlife will shift their ranges and migration patterns and will face habitat loss and heightened mortality. Many traditional foods gathered from the grasslands, including plants, roots, fruits, and mushrooms, will experience a change in their timing and abundance. These changes threaten the deep relationship the residents of this county feel with the environment around them. Climate change will not only continue the cycle of poverty in Buffalo county but will also impact their traditions. Further reading: Climate Change Perspectives from Indian Country. The Hill What Climate Change Means for South Dakota. EPA Article author: Anna Braendle, Georgetown University
Article editor: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University |