FUTURE: rising sea levels, strengthening storms, and changing precipitation in Monmouth County3/23/2018 Climate changes and the local environment: Monmouth County spans across the lower portion of the neck of New Jersey, extending to the eastern coastline. A 2011 report from Columbia University identifies sea level, storm surge, and precipitation, all of which are expected to increase within the next century, as primary climate change associated concerns for New Jersey’s coastal areas. High concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere are causing warmer global temperatures. The result is thermal expansion and melting glacier mass that contribute to an increase in sea levels. Sea levels along the Jersey Shore have already risen 0.36 meters in the last century, and that number will increase sixfold to 2 meters by 2100. Moreover, a 2ºC increase in global temperatures will further this sea level increase to 4.7 meters. The renown beaches of the area will cease to exist as a result of sea level rise, negatively affecting marine life. Resulting higher flood levels will also disrupt wetlands and terrestrial life further in the county as they become open water. Plant composition and communities will, in fact, change, a disruption that will resonate with other organisms. Warming global temperatures will also increase the amount of precipitation the county will experience. Early snowmelt will make for wetter winter and spring months though this will actually intensify summer dryness. The warmer ocean surface temperatures are also likely to increase both the frequency and intensity of hurricanes that hit the area. Hurricanes increase both in frequency and in strength with warming sea surface temperature (SST). Projections predict more hurricanes like 2011’s Irene and 2012’s Sandy, both of which disrupted activity in Monmouth County, mostly due to flooding. How we know: These projections primarily rely on two tools that are freely accessible online: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Explorer app, and the Climate Central Surging Seas, Mapping Choices app. The Climate Explorer tool uses weather information recorded by meteorological instruments at weather stations to reconstruct past climate changes. It uses supercomputer simulations of future climate changes under both high and low emissions scenarios. The Surging Seas tool combines historic flood statistics and local sea level trends with global scenarios of sea level increases, which were compiled in the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment. Human consequences: The continuing increase in global temperatures will impact important industries, local businesses, and homes significantly as sea levels rise due to warming oceans and melting glacier mass. Beach erosion will contribute to much of the blow the region receives since they serve as a great source of revenue for the area by attracting tourists and allowing the growth of local businesses. The county’s coastal lakes are also integral in its commercial and recreational activities, and significant changes in the waters present an alarming concern for Monmouth county inhabitants. Notably, the shellfish industry that makes up 66% of New Jersey’s commercial fishing revenue is at risk as the population of such organism decrease as a result of ocean acidification. Similarly, homes along the coast will be destroyed due to greater storm surges. Over 9,000 homes ($5 billion in property value) housing 18,000 people will be at a 97% risk if Monmouth County sea levels reach the projected 4.7 meters. Thus, the livelihood of the county’s coastal inhabitants is in danger due to anthropogenic global warming leading to rising sea levels and flooding. The impacts of these climate change related changes will be especially hard-felt among low-income communities who have a high vulnerability. Moreover, hazardous waste sites that in areas predicted to experience high level of flooding present an additional worry for Monmouth County as flood waters can release harmful materials. While 2100 and the projected sea level and flooding changes seem far away, the threat they pose calls for immediate action. New Jersey has taken several mitigation measures to increase the resilience of its inhabitants. However, these efforts only confer higher taxes on the population in order to push forward rebuilding initiatives. Further reading: Article author: Armelle Déjoie, Georgetown University
Article editor: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University
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Climate changes and the local environment: As the concentration of greenhouse gases increases, temperatures are expected to rise across the United States. Under a high emissions scenario, which occurs if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, Buffalo County could see an increase in mean daily maximum temperature from 61˚F to 72˚F by 2100. The average number of days with a minimum temperature below 32 ˚F between 1950 and 2004 was 168 days. This figure is projected to decrease to approximately 110 days by 2100. On the other hand, the number days with a maximum temperature above 95 ˚F will increase from 20 (1950 to 2004 average) to 70 days by 2100. This is significant as this represents an approximately 250% change in days with high heat. It should be noted that the specific figures for the predicted temperature changes are based on the median predicted value from all projections under the high emissions scenario. As the temperature increases, the amount of precipitation is also expected to rise by up to 35 percent, particularly in the spring, compared to the 1960-1970 average by 2080 under a high emissions scenario. However, a large portion of this increase will be accounted for by heavy downpours and more intense storms because as the air warms it is able to hold and then consequently release more water vapor. Because of this, Buffalo County will see an increase in both the risk and severity of summertime drought. The state of South Dakota is projected to see a 75% increase in its summer drought threat index. Additionally, the soil is expected to become drier as the warmer temperatures increase the rate of evaporation and water use by plants. Increased precipitation will only partially offset this because with a higher number of heavy precipitation events the ground will absorb less water and more will run off. The runoff, especially into the Missouri River, which borders Buffalo County, will increase the risk of inland flooding. How we know: The projections for temperature and precipitation come from the publically available US Climate Resilience Toolkit and Climate Explorer developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Based on historical weather data collected from weather stations in Buffalo County and surrounding areas, it computes models of future precipitation and temperatures under both high and low emission scenarios. Information about the drought and inland flooding risk comes from States at Risk’s Report Card for South Dakota developed by analysts at Climate Central and ICF International. The report assesses how much a state is threatened by and prepared for future extreme heat, drought, wildfires, inland flooding, and coastal flooding. Information about predicted changes in the soil come from a 2016 Environmental Protection Agency report “What Climate Change Means for South Dakota.” Human consequences: Although the predicted climate changes are less severe in Buffalo County than in other parts of the United States, their impacts are exacerbated by the fact that this county is the second poorest in the United States (2017) and that its residents are part of one of the most marginalized groups in the United States. The majority of Buffalo County is part of the Crow Creek Indian Reservation inhabited by the Crow Creek Sioux Tribe. Of the 2,038 residents, 74.9% are Native American and 18.5 % are white. With the lowest median per capita income in the United States and with more than 70% of the residents unemployed, roughly 50 % of the population lives under the federal poverty line. Many homes in this county lack indoor plumbing and kitchens. Families struggle to pay their electric and heating bills. Increased inland flooding especially for those living near the Missouri River and the associated property damages will present an increased economic burden in the future. As the number of days with freezing temperature decrease, people will need to heat their homes for less days a year relieving some financial strain. The number of days with extreme heat will increase, but most families cannot afford air conditioning. High heat will have detrimental health effects on the elderly, young children, and people with pre-existing conditions, such as asthma. The changes in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture will also impact agriculture in this county. Shorter, more mild winters and warmer summers may extend the growing season, but will also increase the abundance of pests and weeds. However, the drier soil and increased risk of droughts threaten crop yield. Agriculture is the second most common form of employment here, and therefore, changes threaten to make a poor population even poorer. Most importantly, the predicted threats will impact the religion and cultural of the population living here. The Sioux tribes have a deep spiritual connection to the land, water, and animals. In response to the projected increase in temperatures and precipitation, wildlife will shift their ranges and migration patterns and will face habitat loss and heightened mortality. Many traditional foods gathered from the grasslands, including plants, roots, fruits, and mushrooms, will experience a change in their timing and abundance. These changes threaten the deep relationship the residents of this county feel with the environment around them. Climate change will not only continue the cycle of poverty in Buffalo county but will also impact their traditions. Further reading: Climate Change Perspectives from Indian Country. The Hill What Climate Change Means for South Dakota. EPA Article author: Anna Braendle, Georgetown University
Article editor: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University Climate changes and the local environment:As global sea levels rise, regional variations in ocean temperatures, prevailing winds, ocean currents, and the rise or fall of Earth's crust mean that some communities have experienced, and will experience, greater sea level increases than others. Sea levels off Suffolk County, Long Island, for example, are rising at a rate of around 3.23 mm/year, which is up from 2.78 mm/year just one decade ago. New York State is in fact sinking relative to the sea, owing to a combination of human activity and the slow rebound of the landscape following the retreat of the great glaciers that covered the state during the last ice age. Meanwhile, the melting of polar ice sheets and the warming of Earth's oceans mean that seal levels off the state are projected to increase steadily. If emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, and average global temperatures rise by around 4° C (roughly 7° F) relative to twentieth-century averages, then the entire southern coast of Long Island, including that of Suffolk County, will eventually be inundated. Montauk, the tip of Suffolk County, will then become its own island, separated from Long Island by a chasm of water. Winters, meanwhile, are expected to grow shorter but wetter, and major storms - such as Superstorm Sandy - are projected to grow more common. Storm surges will likely threaten natural defenses against the sea, including saltwater marshes and dunes, in ways that may permit even more extensive flooding. How we know:These projections and reconstructions are largely based on reliable, easy to use tools that are freely accessible online: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Sea Level Trends app, the NOAA Climate Explorer app, and the Climate Central Surging Seas, Mapping Choices app. The Sea Level Trends tool shows regional mean sea level changes from the twentieth century through today. NOAA collects data for these measurements through the 142 long-term tide stations of the National Water Level Observation Network, which has been measuring sea level for over 150 years. Each regional mean sea level rise or fall is computed using a minimum of 30 years of data to ensure accuracy. The Climate Explorer tool uses weather information recorded by meteorological instruments at weather stations to reconstruct past climate changes. It uses supercomputer simulations of future climate changes under both high and low emissions scenarios. The Surging Seas tool combines historic flood statistics and local sea level trends with global scenarios of sea level increases, which were compiled in the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment. These projections also make use of a map designed by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, which shows the extent of low-lying coastal areas around Suffolk County. New York State is the third largest coastal flooding threat in the United States, and in 2008 it was reported that about 13.9 percent of the state's residents live directly on the coast. Many towns in Suffolk, particularly some of those located on the southern border, are precariously close to the sea. Even in scenarios that assume drastic action to curb human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, many of these towns will be underwater. Well before that happens, rising sea levels and intensifying storms will batter coastal infrastructure. Today, warming sea surface temperatures are already undermining the quality of local drinking water, and the health of coastal ecosystems, by creating ideal conditions for toxic bacteria. Wetlands that help filter pollution from water flowing out to sea, meanwhile, are vulnerable to rising sea levels and intensifying storms. Further inland, rising temperatures will encourage the spread of pollen, ragweed, and poison ivy, will creating more favorable conditions for Lyme disease. Suffolk County, in short, is set to become a far less healthy place for its inhabitants and the ecosystems on which they depend. In response, municipal, state, and federal governments have mobilized to shore up flood defenses - such as coastal dunes - while some county residents have elevated their coastal homes and businesses. In the long run, however, coastal areas of the county will either need to be protected using very expensive defenses against the sea, or evacuated to make way for the rising waters. Read more:Climate Change Could Threaten Long Island. The Weather Channel Coastline Population Trends in the United States: 1960 to 2008. US Census Bureau Article author: Isabel Paret, Georgetown University
Article editor: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University Climate changes and the local environment:Mean global sea levels have risen by at least 17 centimeters (nearly 7 inches) in the twentieth century. Yet regional variations in ocean temperatures, prevailing winds, ocean currents, and the rise or fall of Earth's crust mean some areas have experienced, and will experience, greater sea level increases than others. Off Connecticut, for example, sea levels are today increasing more quickly than the global average. Connecticut is in fact sinking as its crust slowly recovers from the immense weight of glaciers that covered it during the last ice age. Connecticut is sinking by over 0.03 inches per year, even as Earth's ocean rise. Rising sea levels and sinking land will have dire consequences for the environment of New London County in Connecticut. Low-lying coastal lands in and around the county will eventually be inundated, overwhelming natural flood and storm barriers such as beaches and wetlands. That will make the county ever more vulnerable to coastal storms and flooding, which will grow more frequent and severe as Earth's climate warms. In fact, the Connecticut Governor’s report predicts that by 2050, New London County may face a 100-year storm every 56 years. A 100-year storm refers to a storm of such rarity and magnitude that it has only a 0.1 percent chance of happening in New London County in any given year. Meanwhile, precipitation is on the rise in New London County as local temperatures warm. Hotter air holds more water vapor than cold air, so it is no surprise that average annual precipitation is increasing, while extreme precipitation events - such as torrential rains - are growing more frequent. Both trends are expected to accelerate in the future. Stronger storms sweeping in from the sea are therefore projected to bring more coastal floods in the warmer future, while heavier rains lead to more river floods in New London County. How we know:These predictions are based on four easy to use tools that are freely accessible online: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Sea Level Trends app, the NOAA Climate Explorer app, and the Climate Central Surging Seas, Mapping Choices app, and the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer. The Sea Level Trends tool shows regional mean sea level changes from the twentieth century through today. NOAA collects data for these measurements through the 142 long-term tide stations of the National Water Level Observation Network, which has been measuring sea level for over 150 years. Each regional mean sea level rise or fall is computed using a minimum of 30 years of data to ensure accuracy. The Climate Explorer tool uses weather information recorded by meteorological instruments at weather stations to reconstruct past climate changes. It uses supercomputer simulations of future climate changes under both high and low emissions scenarios. The Surging Seas tool combines historic flood statistics and local sea level trends with global scenarios of sea level increases, which were compiled in the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment. The Global Flood Analyzer estimates the vulnerability of regions to flooding, providing figures for the cost of flood damage and number of people affected. Human consequences:New London County is already coping with climate change. In 2010, New London endured a 100-year flood after heavy rains caused rivers to spill their banks and ground water to overflow sewage systems. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) estimated that the flood cost the county $5.3 million in losses and damages. Precipitation trends will make such floods more common. In New London County, a total of 4,306 residents currently live in homes that are less than 6 feet above sea level. By 2030, there is a 67% chance that flood with waters 6 or more feet above sea level will occur, which would put all these lives and homes at risk. Increased intensity and frequency of both coastal storms and flooding is hugely detrimental to infrastructure and business in New London County. In particular, the Naval Submarine base and the General Dynamics Electric Boat Corporation submarine construction yard, which is the primary builder of submarines for the U.S. Navy, are at risk from sea level rise, storms, and flooding. These establishments are essential to the county’s economy and to national security. Re-engineering of the base and the submarine construction yard may be necessary in order to keep them functional in the face of rising sea levels, yet this would be staggeringly expensive. The consequences of climate change and global warming have already harmed many of coastal communities in New London County. Under all future emissions scenarios, even very optimistic ones, further damage is all but inevitable. Further reading:Climate Change Primer - Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storms. State of Connecticut Climate Suggests Floods will Probably Happen Again. The Day Article author: Georgia Brainard, Georgetown University
Article editor: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University Climate changes and the local environment:The Paris Agreement on Climate aims to limit the increase in Earth's average temperature to 2° C, relative to pre-industrial levels. That will require dramatic cuts to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, and in all likelihood new technology to draw carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. Even if successful, however, these steps will still leave us with enough warming to greatly raise sea levels around the world. There are two reasons for this: first, warm liquids take up more volume than cold liquids, and second, water will flood into the oceans from ice caps on Greenland, West Antarctica, and other polar regions. Low-lying coastal regions, including much of Washington, DC, will eventually be flooded unless they are defended with extensive dikes and levees. If global temperatures rise by 4° C relative to pre-industrial averages - which they would if current long-term trends continue - then much of Washington, DC would ultimately be well below sea level. Climate projections based on continuing high greenhouse gas emissions - known as "high emissions scenarios" - predict that average water levels around Washington, DC would reach 3 feet above present levels by 2110. The city will be particularly vulnerable to flooding because it will be periodically threatened by hurricanes that could have higher sustained winds and higher storm surges than they do today. Under high emissions scenarios, there is a near certain chance by the end of the 21st century that the city will endure flooding more than 10 feet above the current high tide line. Climate projections based on continuing high greenhouse gas emissions estimate that the mean daily maximum temperature of Washington, DC will rise from roughly 20°C (68°F) to nearly 26°C (78°F) by 2100. Days with extreme heat (above 35°C, or 95°F) would increase by a factor of 9, from roughly 10 today to approximately 90 in 2100. Even if countries adhere to the Paris Agreement and sharply reduce their emissions, extreme heat days will probably still rise by a factor of 3, to roughly 30, by 2100. Precipitation patterns are unlikely to change as dramatically. How we know:These projections primarily rely on two tools that are freely accessible online: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Explorer app, and the Climate Central Surging Seas, Mapping Choices app. The Climate Explorer tool uses weather information recorded by meteorological instruments at weather stations to reconstruct past climate changes. It uses supercomputer simulations of future climate changes under both high and low emissions scenarios. The Surging Seas tool combines historic flood statistics and local sea level trends with global scenarios of sea level increases, which were compiled in the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment. Human consequences:Nearly 5,000 people live in nearly 2,000 homes on roughly 2,500 acres of land in parts of Washington that are currently under 10 feet above the high tide line. That territory is home to property worth $9 billion, and it includes 26 EPA-listed sites (including hazardous waste dumps and sewage sites). Under high emissions scenarios, all will be flooded by the year 2100. Even under low emissions scenarios, all will be permanently underwater, although that could take hundreds of years. Much of Washington, DC will eventually need to be evacuated or else protected by extensive and very expensive defenses against the sea, if these prove to be feasible. Under high emissions scenarios, extreme heat will severely tax transportation and electrical infrastructure in Washington, DC. Higher temperatures could increase the presence and transmission rate of disease, especially those that spread through mosquito vectors, such as Zika and malaria. Extreme heat days could well lead to increased mortality among the poor, sick, and elderly. The local human consequences of rising sea levels and temperatures will depend greatly on technological and social developments that are hard to foresee. Nevertheless, climate change should impact Washington, DC with particular force. Further reading:
Article author: Dr. Dagomar Degroot, Georgetown University
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