West Antarctic Ice Sheet and climate tipping points
Much of the ice rests on bedrock below sea level. Retreat into deeper basins can become self-sustaining once grounding lines destabilize.
Explore this system in the interactive atlasWhy it matters
What could change
Several metres of eventual sea-level rise, with especially consequential regional sea-level fingerprints.
Scientific caution
What remains uncertain
Commitment, rate of retreat, and complete collapse are distinct questions; major uncertainties remain.
Tipping element and tipping point
The tipping element is the part of the climate system described on this page. A tipping point is a critical threshold at which that system could begin moving toward a fundamentally different state. The evidence does not imply a simple, instantaneous planetary switch.
Continuously checked
Newest research on West Antarctica
Recent journal metadata is matched automatically to this system and kept separate from the selected studies below.
New research
Live journal metadata from Crossref
Selected scholarship
Key studies
Peer-reviewed work chosen for enduring relevance and influence.
Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century
Naughten, Holland & De Rydt · Nature Climate Change
Regional ocean simulations find substantial Amundsen Sea warming and ice-shelf melt across all tested emissions scenarios.Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review
Wunderling et al. · Earth System Dynamics
Maps the evidence for stabilizing, destabilizing, and still-uncertain links among tipping elements.Possible interactions
Connected tipping elements
These links represent potential interactions, not certain or equally strong causal relationships.
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Freshening and warming of the North Atlantic can weaken deep-water formation and the salt-advection feedback that sustains the circulation.
CryosphereGreenland Ice Sheet
As the ice sheet loses height, its surface encounters warmer air, amplifying melt and potentially committing Greenland to long-term disintegration.
MediatorEl Niño–Southern Oscillation
ENSO is a powerful source of global climate variability that can transmit and intensify stress across rainforests, monsoons, coral reefs, and polar ice.